We're officially in the home stretch of the NFL season, and the Cincinnati Bengals have six weeks to complete the improbable.
There's about an 80% chance the Bengals miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season. It would be the first time a healthy Joe Burrow watches the start of postseason play from home. In order to avoid this reality, the Bengals would likely have to win at least five of their last six games.
How feasible that may be is debatable, but when looking at each of the Bengals' remaining contests, their current playoff chances appear very accurate. Here's how I see Cincinnati's final six games going down.
Week 13 vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Loss (4-8)
Falling to a lowly two-win Cleveland Browns team is not so surprising when looking at Mike Tomlin's tenure leading the Steelers. The occasional stinker is far too common for Pittsburgh, but the Steel Curtain almost always bounces back. They still have a ferocious pass rush and deploy stunts at one of the highest clips in the NFL. That's a recipe that's always given the Bengals issues.
I haven't even mentioned the Steelers now have a capable passing game with Russell Wilson. One bad game in the snow doesn't negate that. The Bengals' defense isn't equipped to stop it at this time.
Week 14 at Dallas Cowboys: Win (5-8)
If the Bengals have proven anything this year, it's that they can at least beat the teams they should beat. The Cowboys aren't great and they typically save their worst games for their fans at home. Ironically, the variable that gives me pause here is Cooper Rush at quarterback. Backup QBs are hilariously successful against Cincinnati, and Rush defeated a better Bengals defense in AT&T Stadium two years ago.
No matter. The Bengals rely on their offense to win games and it's unlikely the Cowboys will put up 30+ in this one despite their surprise win in Washington yesterday.
Week 15 at Tennessee Titans: Win (6-8)
There aren't many signal-callers out there who could make the Bengals defense look good, but Will Levis might be an exception. Levis has a habit of embarrassing himself with comical turnovers that usually go the other way for six points. Tennessee's offensive line also hasn't really done him any favors, which could give Cincinnati’s porous pass rush a slight edge.
If Zac Taylor can't out-coach his former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan in this game, it won't be a great look. The Bengals will likely be road favorites for a reason.
Week 16 vs Cleveland Browns: Loss (6-9)
This game being moved out of the "Thursday Night Football" slot for an early Sunday tilt may benefit the Bengals in terms of rest, but the Browns ended up catching a major break as a result. AFC North teams haven't won a road TNF game against a divisional rival in nearly 10 years. A regular week of rest for the visitors makes this a more interesting matchup.
Cincinnati beat Cleveland last month the day Deshaun Watson tore his achilles and Jameis Winston didn't come into the game until very late. Now Winston is entrenched as the starter and the vibes couldn't be better in comparison to the man he replaced. The Bengals haven't swept the Browns since 2017. I don't think this year will be different.
Week 17 vs Denver Broncos: Loss (6-10)
Denver's defense is the engine behind its quest for a Wild Card spot and it can give Burrow and Co. problems, but don't sleep on the growth rookie quarterback Bo Nix has made. The Broncos have scored 67 points in their last two games and Nix has been spreading the ball around evenly between his receivers.
They may not last very long in the playoffs, but the Broncos look like they belong in the dance. They should beat the Bengals no matter the location of the game.
Week 18 at Pittsburgh Steelers: Win (7-10)
I think Pittsburgh, the current favorite to win the AFC North, will have a playoff spot wrapped up by this point in the season. If the Steelers do take the division crown back for the first time since 2020, the most likely scenario is they'll be the third seed and won't be able to surpass the Kansas City Chiefs of Buffalo Bills for one of the top two spots.
Resting their starters is a likely strategy for the Steelers here, which obviously play into the Bengals' favor. Call it a classic dead cat bounce.
Final record prediction: 7-10
10 losses is not getting you an invite to the playoffs, but that's the price you pay by starting 0-3. Until the Bengals prove they can finish against quality teams, the path ahead is just too tough for them to make it back to the playoffs.
