Some players are fortunate to have a fantastic season right before they reach free agency. Others put up numbers right in line with their career marks. Juan Soto is doing both.
The right fielder was traded to the New York Yankees this offseason, and he’s been a perfect fit in The Bronx. He’s batting .315/.413/.581 and leading the American League with 64 hits and 118 total bases. His 178 OPS+ indicates that he’s hitting 78% better than league-average, which is the third-best mark in the league behind Kyle Tucker (197) and his teammate Aaron Judge (187).
These outlandish numbers aren’t far above his career averages. Over seven seasons, he has slashed .286/.421/.528 with a 158 OPS+. He hasn’t missed a game since 2022 and has suited up at least 150 times in every campaign since his sophomore year (not counting 2020). He endeared himself to New York fans not only with his stellar hitting but with his likeable personality, and he won’t turn 26 until October.
His age, production, durability, and lovability are the ingredients for a free-agency perfect storm. His agent, Scott Boras, usually prefers his clients to test the market rather than to negotiate extensions, but neither the player nor the team have ruled out in-season discussions.
His next contract will almost certainly set records, regardless of whether it’s an extension or a free-agent deal. The largest contract in MLB history is Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but after accounting for $680 million in deferrals, it has a value of just under $461 million. The highest dollar amount in a deal for a position player is Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels, and the longest contract ever is Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million deal with the San Diego Padres.
Soto could top all of those records. A 15-year deal that takes him through age-41 is unlikely, but not impossible. He will almost definitely top Trout’s total value and possibly Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted value as he aims for $500 million.
Yankees managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner recently told reporters, “Payrolls at the levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially.” The team has a total payroll of $302 million, but a $313 million competitive balance tax assessment. As a third-time tax payor, their competitive balance tax levy is $59 million.
MLB’s competitive balance tax threshold will be $241 million in 2025. If the Yankees want to get under that limbo bar, they can’t re-sign Soto. Their payroll commitments for 2025 are already $185 million, and that doesn’t count arbitration salaries for key contributors like Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, and Jose Trevino. Judge earns $40 million per year, and Soto’s next deal should surpass his average annual value.
Can the Yankees afford to lose him though? In 2023, the offense lagged as the club finished 82-80, their worst record since 1992. They suffered from a lack of outfield production—aside from Judge—and not enough impact left-handed hitting. Soto revitalized the lineup, filling both of those needs perfectly as the team currently boasts a 36-17 record—the best mark in the American League.
Soto is an ideal player for the Yankees, and they rarely lets those types of athletes escape their grasp. However, he would be just as ideal in any other lineup in MLB. Not all 30 teams will be able to meet his asking price, but if the Yankees want to keep him in town, they will need to overcome their wariness to maintain a high payroll, then either offer an unprecedented extension or outbid the competition if they let him reach free agency.
