Getty Yankees outfielder Juan Soto is going to be this winter's top MLB free agent. Which team will he be playing for in 2025 and beyond?
Outfielder Juan Soto is finishing his first regular season with the New York Yankees. It’s been a terrific year for the 25-year-old slugger, who has posted a .993 OPS with 41 home runs and 108 RBI. He’s set to become a free agent once the postseason concludes and will be the top-ranked player on the open market.
Which teams will be vying for his services? Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioned seven teams who could be in the mix on a September 25 Bleacher Report live stream. Those teams include the Yankees, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs.
Let’s discuss what kind of contract the Scott Boras client could sign and rank these potential landing spots.
Juan Soto’s Next Contract Could Break a Record
Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers is the richest in baseball history. Due to $680 million of it getting deferred, the present-day value of his deal checks in at around $460 million. That’s a huge drop-off, but it’s still baseball’s richest contract.
Soto rejected a 15-year, $440 million contract extension from the Washington Nationals in 2022. His camp will likely not only be looking for more than that, but it wouldn’t be crazy to think their goal is to beat Ohtani’s record.
The Athletic’s Tim Britton has shared three Soto contract projections since the spring of 2023, and the numbers keep increasing. In all instances, the term of his contract has remained at 14 years. However, the compensation has gone from $528 million to $540 million and now to $560 million. On August 27, ESPN’s Jeff Passan said, “The industry agrees the floor for his contract will be $500 million.”
Spotrac has pegged Soto’s market value at 14 years and about $517 million.
Yankees & Mets Appear to Be Juan Soto Frontrunners
Heyman said on the live stream that the Yankees and Mets are the two most likely landing spots for Soto (and in that order). A Yankees-Mets bidding war for Soto has been brewing since at least spring training, as well.
While it was too early for definitive reporting, SNY’s Andy Martino said on February 18, “There really isn’t any reason why the Mets wouldn’t make a push for Soto.”
Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer made a case for each New York team on May 24. “The heart says Soto will end up remaining with the Yankees. It may be a new relationship, but it just feels so…well, so right. But the head says the Mets,” he said. “Though both clubs can afford a $500 million deal for Soto, the Mets seem more able to afford it.”
While handicapping the Soto sweepstakes on August 15 for the New York Post, Heyman also had the Yankees (even money) and the Mets (5-1 odds) occupying the top two spots. So, whenever it comes to ranking Soto’s potential free-agent landing spots, it only feels right to separate the Yankees and Mets from the rest of the field.
Ranking the Other 5 Juan Soto Landing Spots
While both New York teams look like top contenders for Soto, who else could throw their proverbial hat in the ring? Based on the teams Heyman mentioned on September 25, here’s a quick ranking of the non-New York landing spots for the left-handed slugger (completely based on this writer’s opinion):
- Chicago Cubs
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Francisco Giants
- Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox could afford a large contract and would benefit from installing Soto into their lineup with Rafael Devers. However, the organization’s desire and willingness to make a big splash is a significant question.
San Francisco and Toronto were involved in the Ohtani sweepstakes last winter, with Toronto being a finalist for the two-way superstar. The Blue Jays’ disappointing 2024 campaign could spur other roster changes, but the desire to acquire a superstar of Soto’s caliber is there. That can also be said about the Giants, who have failed to acquire big-time players in recent years. They will again be in the mix for a generational talent, but their chances of being a serious suitor appear unlikely.
Could the Dodgers find a way to add another superstar to their roster after spending more than $1 billion last offseason? Heyman said we can never count Los Angeles out following a historic winter. They’ve shown that if they want to acquire a player, it can become a reality.
The Cubs are interesting because of their situation. Spotrac currently has Chicago’s 2025 payroll commitment at $155 million. That will decrease if Cody Bellinger opts out of his $27.5 million salary. And if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer wanted to make more payroll space, he has other options. Starting pitcher Jameson Taillon ($18 million) and outfielder Ian Happ ($21 million) could each be floated as offseason trade candidates. The desire for Chicago to drop a half-billion dollars on one player might not be there. It’s an interesting hypothetical, though.
3 Other Teams to Monitor During the Juan Soto Sweepstakes
Heyman didn’t mention three teams that shouldn’t be completely discounted as we head toward the winter. Those clubs are the San Diego Padres, Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies.
The Padres just traded Soto away last winter to slash payroll. Signing him to a record-breaking deal the following winter seems unlikely. However, it feels like something that president of baseball operations AJ Preller would do.
Washington also traded Soto away at the 2022 trade deadline, but several MLB.com reporters and analysts think they should be taken seriously in these sweepstakes. The Phillies don’t make perfect sense for Soto from the standpoint of roster construction. However, president of operations Dave Dombrowski is known for making aggressive moves to build a contender.
Team owner John Middleton is fine with spending money to put a winner on the field. After all, he wants his trophy back. If that doesn’t happen this October, it might spur Philly to go big this winter.
