Since late in his rookie season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most productive wide receivers in the NFL. Over the last three seasons, he has the second-most receptions in the league (340).
Over his first two seasons the biggest thing missing from St. Brown's game was scoring, with just 11 of his 196 catches going for touchdowns (a 4.2 percent touchdown rate per target). Especially in 2022, fortune was simply not on his side when it came to cashing in scoring opportunities.
The above correction tease from fantasy analyst John Daigle came to fruition for St. Brown in 2023 when he scored 10 touchdowns. Then last year, he went up a couple more notches with 12 touchdowns. Those 22 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons are the third-most in the league over that span.
Touchdown regression predicted as inevitable for Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2025
As much as St. Brown was due for positive correction in the touchdown column, the last two seasons automatically sit on the extreme end of the best-case scenario. That has been backed up by Matt Okada of 4for4.com, who tabbed his expected touchdown total last year at just 6.8.
"Through his first three career seasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown quickly established himself as one of the best possession receivers in the league. During that time, he logged a touchdown rate of 4.9%, almost exactly the league average. Then, in 2024, he hit 8.5% in total, while scoring on nine of 15 red-zone targets (60%). For some context on how "outlier-y" his production was, St. Brown's 11.0 yards per reception was the lowest by any player wideout to score 12+ touchdowns since T.J. Houshmandzadeh in 2007. St. Brown's skill set is very conducive to high target totals and high reception totals, but not to high touchdown totals. Even in a breakout 2023 season in which he scored 10 touchdowns for the first time, it took him 164 targets to get there at a touchdown rate of 6.1%."
Okada tapped into the easy narrative regarding Ben Johnson's departure and how that stands to hurt the Lions' offense as a whole. If the rampant breakout buzz around wide receiver Jameson Williams comes to fruition (a good bit of skepticism there is fine), it could also hurt St. Brown's touchdown potential.
Okada then hit his bottom line.
"I would almost guarantee he drops back below double-digit touchdowns in 2025. That does raise some concern at his first-round ADP. And while St. Brown is the safer bet with the higher floor, he has an even lower ceiling than someone like Brian Thomas Jr. does, and the missing touchdowns are a major reason why."
Last year's 12 touchdowns may end up being St. Brown's career-high, and his 10 scores from 2023 will likely stand as one of the highest totals of his career. But assuming his typical catch volume, let's say 110-115 catches, 7-10 touchdowns is still in play this year.
The ceiling definitely feels lower, amid questions about how a John Morton-guided Lions' offense will look. But an easy prediction of some touchdown regression is hardly a death knell to St. Brown finishing as a top-tier fantasy wide receiver once again in 2025.
