With the trade deadline fast approaching, the Chicago Cubs are surveying the market for pitching help. One name that has surfaced is Lucas Giolito, currently throwing well for the Red Sox. Reports say the Cubs have their eyes on him, and on paper, the fit makes sense.
He’s a known starter in the league, a former All-Star, and a local product. There is some front office familiarity between the Cubs and Red Sox that could help facilitate talks. The need is obvious: the Cubs need quality innings, and Giolito has been providing just that lately.
However, as the deadline buzz picks up, the real question becomes: Is Lucas Giolito the right kind of addition?
He’s Pitching Well Right Now
There’s no denying Giolito’s recent form and comeback. Over his last six starts, he’s posted a 0.70 ERA. The strikeouts are there, the walk rate is down, and he’s done a great job limiting hard contact. His fastball velocity is hovering in the low 90s, and he’s been commanding his changeup and slider with confidence.
On the season, he holds a 3.36 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. That kind of production would absolutely help a Cubs team that has leaned heavily on Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon while juggling uncertainty at the back of the rotation.
If the Cubs are looking for a short-term boost to keep them in the playoff race, Giolito fits the mold completely.
Track Record Should Not Be Ignored
This isn’t the first time Lucas Giolito has looked great in July. What makes this situation tricky is the full body of work.
After a dominant stretch with the White Sox from 2019 through 2021, Giolito started to unravel. His command came and went, his mechanics broke down, and by 2023, he was bouncing between three teams while posting an ERA of nearly five.
He then missed all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. While the current version of Giolito looks sharp, it’s built on a relatively small sample size. Six good starts do not erase several years of volatility.
This is not about doubting Giolito's talent. It’s about trusting what version of him the Cubs would be buying into for the second half of the season. It's also about weighing out if you would want to take that risk on him when there may be more reliable arms on the market.
The Contract Twist
One wrinkle that complicates the picture is Giolito’s contract. He signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox in 2024 with a vesting option for 2026. (Note: That option only kicks in if he hits 140 innings pitched this season.)
As of now, he’s on pace to fall just short of that number, which means a team like the Cubs could potentially acquire him and have control for next season as well.
That sounds good in theory, but again, it all comes back to trust. Are the Cubs comfortable betting on this version of Giolito being the one they get for the rest of 2025 and potentially into 2026?
There May Be Better Arms Available
If the Cubs are serious about contending, Giolito should not be the only option they consider. There are other arms expected to hit the market, some with more durability, others with recent postseason experience or steadier production.
Giolito has talent. No doubt. Still, for a team trying to find stability, adding someone with a long record of highs and lows feels like a risky play.
He makes more sense as a second move. If the Cubs add him and someone else with a stronger floor, that’s a strategy fans can get behind. However, if Giolito is the big splash, then this front office is betting on a lot of things going just right.
Final Word
Lucas Giolito is a name that carries weight in Chicago. His recent numbers look promising, and the Cubs' need for rotation help is no secret.
This team doesn’t need “promising.” It needs to be dependable. It needs to be consistent. It needs an arm that takes the ball every fifth day and gives them a chance to win without question.
If the cost is low and Giolito is part of a broader pitching plan, the move can make sense. If he is the centerpiece of the Cubs’ deadline, then this rotation might remain just as fragile as it is today.
Buyer beware: the track record is part of the price.
