Cody Bellinger has one of the more significant opt-out decisions of the offseason. The Cubs center fielder/first baseman needs to decide whether to bypass the remaining two years and $50M on the three-year, $80M contract he signed late last winter. If he foregoes this year’s opt-out, he’d have another out clause during the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20M left on the deal).
Last weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported on Friday that Bellinger has yet to decide whether he’ll test the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a solid if slightly disappointing year. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 home runs over 545 plate appearances. He has essentially maintained the career-best pure contact ability that he showed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his trips this year, marginally higher than the 15.6% strikeout rate he managed during his first season on the North Side.
The downturn has been in his power output. Bellinger had eight more home runs and 13 additional extra-base hits a year ago. He has another week to add to this season’s totals but isn’t going to make up that much ground. His slugging percentage is down more than .090 points from last year’s excellent .525 mark. The sustainability of last year’s power production was always the biggest question. Bellinger got to his impressive 2023 output despite a below-average 31.4% hard contact rate and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. This year’s batted ball metrics are similarly middling and the results have indeed regressed.
There’s nevertheless still a lot to like in the profile. Bellinger has proven to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s another season removed from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him before his final arbitration year. It’s safe to say that his 47-homer MVP form isn’t coming back, but Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s still capable of playing center field, although the Cubs have used him increasingly in right field and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as an average defender in a little more than 400 center field innings. He has posted similar marks in more than 350 innings in right. The Cubs’ best outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.
The two-time All-Star remains one of the younger possible free agents in the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s more than a year younger than Harrison Bader, who’d probably be the top center fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s nearly a year younger than Anthony Santander and about the same age as Tyler O’Neill. While there’s a decent amount of corner outfield talent — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto— the center field class is not strong. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer last winter and is no longer eligible to receive one, so there’d be no draft pick forfeiture this time around.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and decent all-around production, he’d have a decent argument for a four- or even five-year deal. If he simply wanted to maximize the guarantee, he shouldn’t have an issue beating the $50M remaining on his current contract. That’d require taking a pay cut next season though. Bellinger wouldn’t match next year’s $27.5M salary on an annual basis over four or five years.
If Bellinger and his camp at the Boras Corporation expect his power to rebound, bypassing the opt-out would be the likely decision. He’d have another chance to retest the market in advance of his age-30 campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago may require playing right field for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, though, potentially raising questions among other teams about his long-term viability in center field.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would probably be the better outcome. That’d enable them to play Seiya Suzuki more frequently in right field instead of limiting him to designated hitter — where he’d need to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s strong year lessens the need to have Bellinger around as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.
