When it comes to salary cap experts in the media, it doesn’t get much better than Jason Fitzgerald, owner and creator of the website Over The Cap. Fitzgerald has made a living out of exploring and explaining NFL contracts, including penning the book “Crunching Numbers”—a must-read for those interested in the nuances of NFL salary cap management.
Anyway, on his podcast this week, he discussed Jared Goff’s new contract with the Detroit Lions, and his main takeaway seemed to be a bit of surprise that the Lions ended up giving as much as they did for the veteran quarterback. As a reminder, Goff’s new contract is a four-year extension worth $212 million and has a record-breaking $73 million signing bonus.
“Any way you slice it, it is a tippy-top NFL contract, and you lose your margin for error” Fitzgerald said. “What becomes the underdog story kinda becomes if you’re having some difficulty, it’s gonna be looked at very negative by the press, it’s gonna be looked at very negative from the fan base, because your expectations grow exponentially when your salary reaches these levels. So I was little surprised. I didn’t expect him to get there. I thought he would’ve been by (Kirk) Cousins’ ($45 million/year).”
Despite the minor criticism, Fitzgerald does note that this big contract will not be a problem for the Lions in the first two years.
“Does this impact them this year? Absolutely not. Their team is gonna be the same whether or not he was extended,” Fitzgerald said. “Does it impact them next year? Probably not.”
In 2026, though, he thinks the contract could be restrictive. Although he admits the currently-listed $69.6 million cap hit that year (due to a $55 million salary) is not likely to be accurate, he doesn’t have the full breakdown of the contract yet. He believes the Lions are likely to defer much of that cap hit down the road—perhaps even beyond Goff’s era in Detroit.
“We have him down as a $69.6 (million) cap hit in 2026. My assumption is that is much, much, much lower. My assumption is that there is going to be four, five void years on this deal and that he will have an option (bonus) in 2025. I think he’ll have an option (bonus) in 2026, then he’ll have an option again in 2028. Then they’ll have just a bunch of void years on the back end. So I have a feeling that they’re going to defer a lot of cap charges on this one to potentially the post-Goff era. That would be my guess. But the impact that really comes from this contract—even if they do that—the impact that you’re going to look for is 2026.”
Fitzgerald, again, concedes that the Lions’ current cap situation is healthy and can certainly withstand a contract like this. A lot, too, will depend on what they do next offseason. If they spend a significant amount of money hoping to capitalize on a Super Bowl window, it could complicate their situation in 2026 and beyond. That hasn’t been general manager Brad Holmes’ style, and if he continues down a more conservative free agency path, Fitzgerald isn’t too worried about their situation.
“Are you going to go crazy in free agency with the cap space that you have in the hopes of going further in the playoffs if they don’t win it all this year?” Fitzgerald said. “Or do they take a steady, tempered approach? If they do that, they’re probably fine. If you end up having a year next year and you go all in, that’s probably more where you run into trouble.”
The entire discussion is quite interesting, and I think somewhat balanced. Fitzgerald starts talking about the contract around the six-minute mark, all the way until about the 27-minute mark.
