The Minnesota Vikings entered this season with modest expectations and a big reason was Sam Darnold. A former draft bust with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, Darnold was tabbed to be the Vikings' starter after Kirk Cousins departed last spring and many thought Minnesota was destined for a rebuilding year.
Narratives can change quickly in the NFL and Darnold was front-and-center as the Vikings won their first five games to open the season. But while Darnold has been steady, it shouldn't steer the Vikings away from their long-term plan to start J.J. McCarthy in 2025.
Darnold was one of the NFL's biggest surprises in the early weeks of the season.
Over his first four games, Darnold completed 68% of his passes for a league-high 11 touchdowns with three interceptions. Darnold was throwing the ball downfield with an average depth of target of 8.8 yards and he was making key throws with a 4.4 big-time throw percentage according to Pro Football Focus.
(Note: Big time throws are defined by PFF as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.)
Darnold went on to have his worst game of the season against the Jets in London, completing 14-of-31 passes with an interception and a season-low 50.3 quarterback rating but has bounced back over the last two weeks, completing 76% of his passes for 499 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
With overall numbers of 1,610 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, Darnold has done a great job rehabbing his image and making a case for the Vikings to bring him back over the first seven games. But this isn't about what Darnold is doing — this is about where Darnold is going.
Spotrac values Darnold at a $32.6 million salary for next season and a contract of four years and $130.2 million on the open market. Over the Cap also believes Darnold is set to get paid in free agency, assessing a $27.35 million valuation for his play this season.
With $63.4 million in effective cap space – which takes into account the cap space a team will have after signing its top 51 players and its draft class – next season, it would be easy to do a short-term deal and keep Darnold around to give McCarthy a full year on the field after missing his rookie season with a torn meniscus. But it also neglects that this team still has holes to fill.
The interior of the offensive line has been a disaster as Ed Ingram is tied for the league lead among guards with 20 pressures this season and Garrett Bradbury is first among centers with 18 pressures.
The Vikings also need help on the interior defensive line as Harrison Phillips, Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bullard have 25 pressures combined after seven games.
The cornerback room could be in for an overhaul as Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr. are all set to become free agents and they may need a new running back after feeding soon-to-be 30-year-old Aaron Jones an average of 18 touches per game.
While some of this could be solved with drafting, the Vikings have only three draft picks in the 2025 draft. With the expectation that Minnesota will be buyers at the trade deadline, that capital could shrink even more with a big deal although they have a projected third-round compensatory pick that won't be available for trade until this spring.
With so many holes to fill and not a lot to do it, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will have to decide where to spend his salary cap space and riding McCarthy as the quarterback in 2025 may be the best way to do it – especially when you consider what other high-priced quarterbacks have done after signing their extensions.
Dak Prescott is the NFL's highest-paid quarterback at $60 million per year but he can't overcome the Dallas Cowboys' flaws over a 3-3 start.
Trevor Lawrence is next on the list making $55 million for the 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars and Joe Burrow is making the same amount for the 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals, who are currently clutching their pearls over paying his top target, Ja'Marr Chase.
There are outliers on this list including Jordan Love ($55 million), Jared Goff ($53 million) and Lamar Jackson ($52 million) but there are just as many horror stories including Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1 million), Justin Herbert ($52.5 million) and Jalen Hurts ($51 million).
If this sounds familiar, it's the exact train of thought that sent Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons after six years of highly-paid football that led to just one playoff win. Darnold may not be in that same tier but he has certainly been good, which FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd points out isn't up to the standard of winning championships in the NFL.
