After coming a few plays away from winning the Super Bowl earlier this year, the San Francisco 49ers have had an offseason for the ages, including hold-ins, trade talks, coaching changes, and enough drama to remain in the headlines week-in and week-out for months on end.
And yet, when the ball gets kicked on opening night, Kyle Shanahan has to rally his troops and get everyone on the same page, as anything less than a deep playoff berth will be considered a disappointment for fans in and outside of the Bay Area.
So, with a tight runway and very little widdle room to struggle in a tight NFC, here are three bold predictions for the 49ers’ 2024 season.
1. The 49ers defense tops out at just good
When the 49ers decided to hire Steve Wilks to replace DeMeco Ryans as their defensive coordinator, it felt like a solid enough decision for a team once again looking for a new man to run that side of the ball.
Tasked with incorporating his own schematic specifics into the 49ers’ pre-existing defensive framework, which dates back all the way to when Robert Salah came to the Bay Area alongside Kyle Shanahan, Wilks was famously not allowed to bring in his own coaches and instead had to work inside the framework of the past administration minus the talent Ryans took with him to Houston after getting the Texans job.
Now, as fans know, the decision didn’t really work, as while the numbers looked pretty good, it’s clear the team took a step back on that side of the ball and lost the Super Bowl in no small part because of Wilks’ decision-making.
Will Nick Sorensen be able to rise where Wilks waned? Well, the players seem to like to play for him, and he seems willing to run the scheme Shanahan wants him to run, which is a huge part of the battle, but he’s also inexperienced when compared to the former Arizona Cardinals head coach, and may need some time to really become a difference maker like Ryans or Salah before him. As bold as it may sound, the 49ers’ defense might just be good/above average in 2024, which, while not bad obviously, could be an issue against the very best teams in the NFL.
2. Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t reach 1,000 yards
At this point, has any player in the NFL been written about more than Brandon Aiyuk?
He was going to be traded to the Cleveland Browns, then the Pittsburgh Steelers, then the Washington Commanders, then the New England Patriots, then he was going to stay, then he was going to hold, and then he was to be traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, again, all before he eventually agreed to a four-year, $120 million deal to make him one of the top-5 players in the NFL at his position.
Exhausting, right? Well, imagine how it must have felt for everyone within the 49ers organization, from Aiyuk to Ricky Pearsall, to Terrace Mitchell, who has only been on the team for a few days but signed on the dotted line with a few plates still in the air, so to speak? Even if the 49ers are surely happy to have Aiyuk back, he still missed plenty of time, lost out on valuable reps, and had his mind on anything but the Xs and Os ahead of an incredibly important season for everyone involved.
So, with Aiyuk back, the 49ers suddenly have their top wide receiver locked in for the future, and as a result, when San Francisco takes the field in Week 1 and beyond, opposing teams will take special interest in where he’s lined up from snap to snap, with safety support, interior support, and all of the other options at a defensive coordinators disposal use to slow him down.
Now granted, it’s not like Aiyuk hasn’t been at the top of the 49ers’ scouting report for years now, as he has thoroughly lapped Deebo Samuel as the team’s top receiver, but this is the first season where he’ll be a $120 million man, and that, when coupled with the presence of San Francisco’s incumbent starters and the addition of Pearsall, could prevent him from eclipsing 1,000 yards for the third-straight season.
Fortunately, even if Aiyuk doesn’t get to 1,000 yards doesn’t mean the 49ers’ offense won’t be darn good, as a few fewer passes thrown the ASU product’s way just means more for Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, or another worthy target.
3. The 49ers still win the NFC West
Is this a very pessimistic set of bold predictions? Sure, but do you know what? The 49ers are still going to win the NFC West, are still going to make it far in the playoffs, and may even return to the Super Bowl when everything is said and done; they just have a few areas of concern that could limit their ultimate ceiling.
