Shaikin: Home again? Why Kenley Jansen could be a good trade match for Dodgers

   

Kenley Jansen signed his first professional contract with the Dodgers 21 years ago. He was Clayton Kershaw’s catcher in rookie ball. He has been honored as an All-Star four times. He has saved more games than all but three men in major league history, all of them Hall of Famers. He won a World Series with the Dodgers.

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For all that Jansen has accomplished in his two decades in pro ball, there is one thing he has not experienced: He never has been traded.

That could happen in the coming days, with baseball’s trade deadline next Thursday. As we talked about that possibility Friday at Angel Stadium, and about how the sport can be a cold business at times, he dropped 11 words that stood out.

“I thought,” he said, “I would play my whole career with the Dodgers.”

Maybe you can go home again.

 

The Dodgers are urgently shopping for right-handed relievers. In Anaheim, Jansen is enjoying a season that by some measures is his best since 2021, his last season with the Dodgers.

First things first: Jansen did not sign with the Angels just to rack up saves. He is 36 saves shy of 500, a milestone reached only by Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.

“I came here with one goal in mind,” Jansen said, “and the goal was to help this team turn around, to end that playoff drought. That’s what I’m here for.

“If they move me, I’d definitely feel disappointed we didn’t accomplish it.”

But let’s be real: The longest playoff drought in the majors is likely to hit 11 years. The Angels are 4-1/2 games out of a postseason berth, but they would have to pass six teams to sneak into the last wild-card spot in the American League playoffs. Baseball Prospectus projects their chance of making the playoffs at 2%.

The Angels demoted their fifth starter this month. They have been running bullpen games because they had no one in their farm system ready to fill the vacancy. They only have two starters you could pencil into their 2026 rotation.

They need pitching depth, and it would be organizational malpractice not to get some by trading their pending free agents, Jansen included.

Kenley Jansen pitches for the Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the 2021 NLCS.

Kenley Jansen pitches for the Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the NLCS on Oct. 19, 2021. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

For the Angels, the optimal outcome would be a team desperate for a closer overpaying to get Jansen.

However, such a team would be more likely to overpay for the marquee names on the market, including Jhoan Duran of the Minnesota Twins, Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians and Felix Bautista of the Baltimore Orioles, with a second tier led by David Bednar of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Ryan Helsley of the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Dodgers hate to overpay.

Jansen has 17 saves and one blown save, with a 1.00 earned-run average in save situations and a 3.19 ERA overall. The latter is his lowest ERA since 2021. By ERA+, a statistic that accounts for league and ballpark factors, Jansen is at 133 — or 33% better than league average.

The only Dodgers relievers with an ERA+ above 133: left-handers Alex Vesia and Jack Dreyer.

Dodgers relievers have thrown 49.1% of the team’s innings pitched; the highest percentage of any major league team. Vesia, Anthony Banda and the injured Tanner Scott rank among the top 20 in appearances. Ben Casparius, who earned his first major league save Friday, ranked second among major league relievers in innings pitched.

In an ideal world, the Dodgers would enter the playoffs with four primary right-handed relievers: Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips.

Phillips is out for the season. Treinen could return from the injured list next week, with Kopech possibly to follow next month and Graterol in September, but it is risky to count on injured players to return healthy and effective.

In a major league career that started in 2010, Jansen never has been on the injured list because of an elbow or forearm issue, and his two stints for shoulder inflammation were brief.

The Dodgers could drop Jansen into their mix of high-leverage right-handers. They would not want Jansen if he would want to be the unquestioned closer.

He is getting the job done as a closer, and he is getting closer to 500 saves. But the Dodgers' analysts would probably take note of his career highs in exit velocity and hard-hit balls, and a .774 OPS against left-handers that compares unfavorably to his .600 career mark, and might want to spot him against a run of right-handers. Could be the sixth inning, could be the ninth.

Whether it’s the Dodgers or any other contending team, would Jansen consider a role outside the ninth inning?

“At that point, it’s just about getting rings,” Jansen said. “My goal is to win. You play for that, always. I understand there is a milestone I am close to. But, at the end of the day, it’s what you play for. You play to win. You play to win a World Series.

“If I have to go throw the sixth, seventh, eighth, I would do it. I’m a professional. I would do what I do best, and that is pitch.”

Jansen said he hasn’t given up on this Angels team, or this Angels season. He would love to win in Anaheim. The Angels could help him do that: Trade him for another pitching piece that could help them next year, then sign Jansen again over the winter.