The New York Jets held the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Heading into the draft, many Jets fans wished to see a trade back that would allow them to recoup the 2nd round pick they had previously traded to acquire quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
As fortune had it, the Jets did trade back in the first round. However, they only moved from pick 10 to pick 11, which netted them a 4th and a 5th round pick from the Minnesota Vikings with the Jets throwing in a 6th. This is a far cry from the 2nd round pick that many had hoped for.
However, recent footage from the Los Angeles draft room suggests the Jets were offered a far bigger trade package for the 10th overall pick, which they rejected.
I ❤️ THE BEHIND THE SCENES FOOTAGE: The Los Angeles #Rams were trying to trade up with the New York #Jets during the #NFLDraft.
Many suspected them really wanting to select TE Brock Bowers. So cool to see what happens behind the scenes. #NFL pic.twitter.com/yOpxqncPJK— 49ers & NFL News 24/7 (@49ersSportsTalk) June 14, 2024
As shown in the above clip, the Los Angeles Rams offered the 19th and 52nd overall picks to the Jets in exchange for the 10th overall pick. Given that the Rams also considered moving up to the 11th overall pick when the Vikings held that pick then it is plausible that the Jets could have acquired these picks for the 11th overall pick after the first traded was completed.
In reality, the New York Jets did not make that trade. But should they have? Well, depending on the trade charts, the answer could vary.
Specifically, with values taken from Drafttek, the 10th overall pick is valued at 1300 on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. By comparison, the 19th overall pick is worth 875 and the 52nd overall pick is worth 380 on this same chart, which would only be a value of 1255. Accordingly, the Jimmy Johnson model of draft pick trading would recommend not trading from 10 to 19 in this scenario. However, the trade would essentially be an even swap if they could have moved from 11 to 19 since the 11th overall pick is valued at 1250.
By comparison, with values taken from Drafttek, the 10th overall pick is valued at 369 when using the Rich Hill trade chart. By comparison, the 19th and 52nd picks are worth 278 and 109, respectively, for a combined value of 387 which again would be essentially an even swap. The value for the 11th overall pick is slightly less at 358 but the decision essentially remains an even swap in the grand scheme of things, albeit one that would give greater reason to have done the trade.
So, according to the tables, the Jets could have made this trade and been slightly better off in theory, but the gains would have been small nonetheless.
However, in practice, taking this deal would likely have cost the Jets offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, whom they took at 11, but would likely not have been available at 19. For me, I’d probably take Fashanu, but I would not begrudge anyone who thinks the New York Jets should have taken the mild surplus value and selected an alternative tackle such as Troy Fautanu, who went to the Pittsburgh Steelers at pick 20.
What do you think? Should the Jets have moved back to pick 19?
