Sorry NY, but the Yankees Staff Is Not Primed for October: 2 Players Who Are

On the whole, the New York Yankees‘ pitching staff has been good. This is evidenced by an ERA that has remained in the top five along with the second-most wins (52) in Major League Baseball.

However, from a pitching value standpoint, a middling 14th fWAR of 7.1 reveals the offense is carrying a good deal of the load. As of June 28, the Yankees led MLB in walks, are second in home runs and runs scored, and third in ISO, slugging, wOBA, wRC+, and fWAR.

The roster has enough offensive oomph and doesn’t pose a concern when eyeing a possible deep playoff run. However, when looking at the current depth chart, postseason experience among the pitching staff IS concerning.

Let’s dive into the postseason dynamics and 2 names who could potentially help the Yanks avoid once again watching the World Series as spectators.

Why October Has Become a Different Animal

As I note below, winning 95, 100, or even 110 games may be great for fans and an owner’s bottom line, but it means less and less once the new playoff format comes about in October.

To emphasize, here’s a look at how 100-plus win teams have fared in just the past 3 postseasons:

• 2021 Giants: 107 wins, lost the LDS 3-2

• 2021 Rays: 100 wins, lost in the LDS 3-1

• 2022 Braves: 101 wins, lost the LDS 3-1

• 2022 Dodgers: 111 wins, lost the LDS 3-1

• 2023 Braves: 104 wins, lost the LDS 3-1

• 2023 Dodgers: 100 wins, lost the LDS 3-0

• 2023 Orioles: 100 wins, lost in the LDS 3-0

The 106-win Houston Astros were the only survivors dispatching the Seattle Mariners three straight games back in 2022.

The bottom line is this: Baseball has become much like hockey where a hot goaltender and surging roster can overcome the regular-season stalwarts.

In 36 years since the Presidents Trophy was handed out for the NHL’s best record, only eight teams have also won Lord Stanley’s Cup that season. The last to do it was the 2012-2013 Chicago Blackhawks.

In the same vein, October baseball doesn’t care about the previous six months. It’s a new season and with a short 5-game LDS, anything can and is happening. The behemoths have become quite vulnerable to the pressure of summoning the needed wherewithal to replicate their regular-season prowess in a short series.

So How Are the Yankees’ Set Up for Postseason Pitching?

In a word, questionable! Let’s examine the Bronx Bomber’s current depth chart and find out who has a postseason pedigree and who doesn’t.

Starters

1. Gerrit Cole: In 104.1 IP over 12 series, Cole has gone 10-6 with 134 Ks and a 0.94 WHIP. Nuff’ said, all good here.
2. Carlos Rodon: Only 2 appearances (1 as a starter) with 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, and 4 ER. Small sample, but not encouraging.
3. Marcus Stroman: In five starts over 4 series he went 1-1 in 30.2 IP with 29 H, 4 HR, 21 K, and a 1.17 WHIP. Not bad.
4. Luis Gil: Very nice and unexpected contribution so far despite a rocky 6.45 ERA in June. Zero postseason exposure is not blowing up any skirts.
5. Clarke Schmidt: Still recovering from a lat injury. He was putting up career-best numbers before going down. That said, his October numbers are scary. Albeit only 2 series, he went 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA over 2.1 IP with 5 H and 2 HR.
6. Cody Poteet: The soon-to-be 30-year-old righty was good in 4 starts before a triceps injury put him on the shelf. He has never thrown a pitch in the postseason.

Bullpen

1. Luke Weaver: The 30-year-old is having his best year since 2019, but over 9 seasons with 8 teams, he’s never had a postseason opportunity.
2. Ian Hamilton: Saw action in 27 games before a lat strain put him out of action until at least mid-July. With a 4.55 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and no playoff experience, not much to hang your October hopes on.
3. Tommy Kahnle: The veteran will turn 35 in August and has been pretty decent in 14 games with a 3.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The good news is in 18 postseason appearances over 22.1 IP he has 22 K, a save, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 3.38 ERA.
4. Caleb Ferguson: The former Dodger has struggled with a low 58.7 LOB%, a 5.84 ERA, and a 1.54 WHIP. He does have 10 holds and didn’t surrender an earned run in 5.1 innings of previous playoff baseball in LA.
5. Michael Tonkin: He’s 2-3 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 26 games which are good numbers, but he only appeared once in the postseason giving up two hits in 0.2 IP with the Braves in the 2023 NLDS.
6. Clay Holmes: Has converted 19 of 23 save opps with a 1.30 WHIP in 2024. In six playoff chances over 8 IP Holmes has yet to be touched for an earned run.

Several other arms have come and gone or continue to be on the injured list, but none have any significant postseason chops worthy of a mention.

Yankees Need Postseason Moxy: These Two Pitchers Have It

First off, very few guys who may or may not be available at the July 30 MLB trade deadline currently fit in any type of imminent trade chip scenario. Complicating matters, several teams who were not in a favorable October position just two to three weeks ago have suddenly caught fire.

Before we can fantasize about poaching any number of star talents, it appears we’ll all just have to sit back and watch the next three-plus weeks unfold. At any rate, here are two guys I believe would help solidify the Yankees October pitching staff.

Max Scherzer

No need to spend a lot of time on his accolades. In 20 playoff series spanning a decade’s worth of postseason action, Mad Max has tossed 143.1 innings while giving up only 109 hits and fanning 171 batters with a 1.15 WHIP. The only question here is availability.

Although the Texas Rangers have recently shown some life, they remain eight games behind division-leading Seattle and seven out in the AL Wild Card. This while rival Houston (who’ve made it to seven consecutive ALDS) has begun to heat up and serve notice.

Scherzer would be the ultimate rental for the Yanks and Uncle Steve Cohen is footing half of what would be a pro-rated amount of his $43 million owed in 2024.

Aroldis Chapman

That’s right. A possible reunion with the fiery 36-year-old Cuban native could be on the docket. Chapman signed a 1-year, 10.5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but up until a few weeks ago, the former Cincinnati Reds and Yankees star looked like he’d rather be somewhere—anywhere else.

That changed in June as the 21st all-time leader in saves with 323 has starved opposing batters with a .167 batting average and measly .233 SLUG. Chapman has struck out 13 batters in 8.2 innings pitched over nine outings so far this month.

October, you ask? In 18 series he racked up 68 Ks in only 49.1 innings pitched, with 10 saves, a .237 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP.

Is the colorful lefty back? Time will tell. I do believe he’s worth what would be around a $3.6 million postseason gamble. The only barrier is the parity in a below-average National League which has the Pirates only two games out from the third and final Wild Card.

Then again, sporting a current minus-31 run differential, chance favors the Pirates regressing a bit more as July 30 approaches and the franchise is quite familiar with the role of deadline seller. Therefore, one can surmise a reasonably good chance Chapman is on the move before too long.

In conclusion, look for the deadline to yet again significantly influence this year’s eventual World Series champion, and the Yankees had better be a major player.