Stat of the Jay: How Much Better Does Bengals Defense Need To Get To Make Team Super Bowl Worthy?

   

CINCINNATI – With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins signed through 2029 and 2028, respectively, the focus for the Cincinnati Bengals turns to fixing a defense that wasted some of the best offensive performances in franchise – and league – history last year.

Stat of the Jay: How Much Better Does Bengals Defense Need To Get To Make Team Super Bowl Worthy?

New defensive coordinator Al Golden doesn’t have to turn in a worst-to-first type of turnaround to get the Bengals back into the postseason again.

But there still needs to be substantial improvement.

I looked at each of the last 40 Super Bowl teams and what their defenses allowed in terms of points, yards and, most important of all, points per drive.

It’s not important to know which Super Bowl defenses were the best or the worst. Average defenses can be carried by great offenses, which is what the Bengals will be banking on.

And great defenses can pull along suspect offenses, which should never be the case in Cincinnati while Joe Burrow is throwing to Chase and Higgins.

So let’s look instead at the last 40 teams that reached the sport’s pinnacle and what they averaged in those three categories to get a good baseline of where the Bengals need to get to.

Super Bowl team averages

Points per drive allowed: 1.63

Total points allowed: 316.8

Total yards allowed: 5,213

2024 Bengals numbers

Points per drive allowed: 2.25

Total points allowed: 434

Total yards allowed: 5,921

Now, let’s look at the best single-season improvements the Bengals have made in those categories since the start of the 2000 season, when the league began tracking points per drive.

Points Per Drive Allowed: .431

The 2003 Bengals allowed 2.04 points per drive in Marvin Lewis’ first season as head coach before lowering that number to 1.61 in 2004.

Though it’s the best improvement the Bengals have made in that span, it only ranks as the 83rd greatest leap among all teams.

The 2022 Jets hold the mark for most improved, going from 2.64 the previous year to 1.56. And those 2022 Jets still missed the playoffs.

For the Bengals to go from 2.25 last year to the 20-year average of 1.63 among the last 40 Super Bowl teams, they would need a leap of .620.

Thirty-one out of a possible 764 teams (4 percent) have been able to make that kind of improvement in a single season.

Points Allowed: 73

The 2009 team that swept its way to the AFC North Division title allowed just 291 points one season after surrendering 364.

That 291 is the seventh lowest total in any 16-game season in team history.

The 2024 Bengals gave up 434 points (the seventh most in a 16-game season).

To get to the Super Bowl average of 316.8, the Bengals would need an improvement of 117.2 points allowed (or 6.9 per game).

That’s a big ask.

There have been 112 teams out of a possible 764 (14.7 percent) to lower their points allowed by at least 73 points from one season to the next.

Yards Allowed: 655

The 2001 Bengals weren’t good, but their defense was 655 yards better than in 2000.

It’s only the 87th best improvement league wide since 2000.

The 2024 Bengals gave up 5,921 yards.

In order to reach the Super Bowl average of 5,213, it would take an improvement of 708 yards, which again would be the best in franchise history since the turn of the century.

Only 77 of 764 teams (10.1 percent) have made that kind of leap.

Even with an offense capable of taking the Bengals to the Super Bowl, Golden’s defense is going to make significant strides to make that a reality.