The Pittsburgh Steelers hold the 21st overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and this year is shaping up to be a potentially definitive year that could determine the team’s success for the next half-decade or longer.
We recently ran an NFL draft simulation through the Pro Football Focus simulator, and the Steelers’ picks for the first three rounds are in. Let’s take a closer look.
Steelers’ draft needs (QB, WR, DB)
PPF listed quarterback, wide receiver, and defensive back as the Steelers’ greatest needs. The Steelers must address their quarterback position. The team thought they could fill the void at quarterback since the Ben Roethlisberger era by signing Russell Wilson, a former star with a successful track record, and pairing him with a former collegiate star with untapped potential in Justin Fields. Unfortunately for the Steelers, neither of these plans worked out as well as the team had hoped for, and both players may be moving on this winter.
However, even if one or both players stay, the team still needs an infusion of talent and upside at the game’s most important position. The Steelers lack talent at the wide receiver position outside of George Pickens, but the supremely talented young star could be wearing out his welcome in the Steel City, and he might not be wearing the Black and Gold for much longer.
The third-most important position could be debated, but the team’s defensive backfield could use some work. Overall, PFF’s analysis of the team’s needs appears reasonable, especially the team’s issues at quarterback and receiver.
Round 1, Pick 21: Ashton Jeanty, RB
Let’s start with the positives: Jeanty is an extremely talented player. He’s arguably the best running back in this year‘s draft class, and the gap between Jeanty and the other prospects might be wider than most people think. In fact, it might be more of a gulf than a gap.
Jeanty is a true three-down back who can do anything that his team asks of him and he would be an extremely versatile asset to have. Jeanty is equally capable of rushing between the tackles for consistent three to five-yard gains, beating the defense to the corner for an explosive gain, or breaking a tackle to gain extra yardage.
He’s also a more than adequate weapon in the passing game, both an extra blocker and another weapon for his quarterback to target.
With all of this being said, why isn’t it a slam dunk A+ grade for any team to draft Jeanty? The answer lies in the overall value that he can be for his team relative to other options and the other players that are available.
My issue with this pick really has nothing to do with Jeanty at all as a player. It has more to do with the value of the running back position in general, and the reality that there are more options in this year’s draft class who will likely be available in the second round or perhaps even later.
Ohio State has two excellent backs who are draft eligible in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. It’s possible that one or both of these players could possibly sneak into the first round or the early second round, especially Judkins. However, both of these players could easily find themselves going in the middle of the second round, and Henderson could possibly even slip to the third round or later. In this simulation, both players went early in the third round.
Both of these players would represent excellent value at that draft slot, and they each bring to the table nearly as much as Jeanty does. This means that, while Jeanty is undoubtedly a great player and an exciting talent who can make magic happen anytime he touches the ball, he’s not the best value for the Steelers to use a premium draft pick on.
Besides Henderson and Judkins, the running back position in this year’s draft class is fairly deep with several other players projected to go in the second, third, or fourth rounds. As great of a player as Jeanty is, he just might not be worth a top 25 draft pick.
Round 2, Pick 53: Carson Schwesinger, LB
Schwesinger is an aggressive downhill run defender who will quickly become a fan favorite in the Steel City. He’s a sure tackler who can shut down an opponent’s running game nearly by himself.
If the year was 2005 instead of 2025, Schwesinger could easily be in contention to be a top-five draft pick. There is questionable value in taking a run-stopper this early given the stylistic change of modern NFL offenses, but I have no major issues with this pick.
Round 3, Pick 85: Elijah Arroyo, TE
Arroyo isn’t the best blocker, which means he will struggle to fit in culturally with a hard-nose Steelers team that prefers to play smash-mouth football. However, he does have desperately needed upside as a receiver.
Arroyo is an excellent route runner and will be an impact weapon in the passing game from day one. This will allow him to bring some value to a Pittsburgh passing attack that has struggled mightily and is at a severe lack of talent outside of the mercurial George Pickens.
Pat Freiermuth is an excellent tight end and has shown promise in the passing game, but he hasn’t developed quite as quickly as the team would like and it’s possible the Steelers aren’t committed to him long-term. Even if they are, while Freiermuth is certainly a good player and a useful pass catcher, he isn’t necessarily a game-changer.
I personally like this pick, and I would be thrilled if the team went in this direction and leaned into their passing game by adding a physical threat over the middle of the field and down the seams.
