The Pittsburgh Steelers made a somewhat surprising decision ahead of the 2024 season by declining running back Najee Harris’ fifth-year option. Many Steelers fans expected the team to exercise it, as it seemed like a logical move. Had they picked it up, Harris would have been guaranteed $6.79 million for the 2025 season. Instead, by declining the option, the Steelers have set him up to become a free agent.
There has been ongoing debate among Steelers insiders about Harris’ chances of returning to Pittsburgh in 2025. While reports have been somewhat conflicting, the prevailing belief is that both sides are likely to part ways. Of course, anything can happen in free agency, and the decisions made in the coming months will have a lasting impact on teams across the league.
Harris’ projected market value of $9.2 million means the Steelers would have to pay significantly more in 2025 if they hope to retain him. This makes their decision not to pick up his option even more surprising.
With fans continuing to debate Harris’ performance, ESPN Sports Analytics Writer Seth Walder provided an objective reality check on the harsh truth about Harris’ first four seasons in Pittsburgh.
"Harris has been better in Years 3 and 4 of his career, but I think his reputation is still coasting off being drafted in the first round in 2021," wrote Walder. "If I told you there was an available running back who averaged 3.9 yards per carry over more than 1,000 career attempts, had negative rush yards over expectation in three out of four seasons (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and didn't produce any exceptional receiving numbers, what would that player be worth to you? I don't think the answer should be very much."
The data Walder presents paints a clear picture. While Harris' durability and consistent 1,000-yard seasons are undeniable positives, the deeper analytics raise serious questions about whether he's worth $9.2 million or more in Pittsburgh.
Walder’s breakdown highlights key concerns that make committing to Harris a difficult decision for the Steelers.
"There have been 32 running backs over the past decade with at least 1,000 carries, and Harris' 3.9 yards per carry ranks 30th among that group...Harris does offer availability - he has started and played every regular-season game of his career (68) - but his overall numbers are not that far from replacement level," Walder said. "I imagine some team is going to pay him expecting a bit more than that."
This data highlights why many Steelers fans believe the team should move on from Harris. Some supporters sympathize with him, recognizing that he hasn’t had the benefit of playing behind a strong offensive line or in an effective system.
Others, however, point to Jaylen Warren’s ability to exploit openings that Harris often struggles to find, leading to confusion about Harris’ effectiveness. Of course, there’s more to the discussion, as backup running backs can sometimes appear more explosive in limited opportunities.
Another factor working against Harris is the way modern NFL teams value running backs. In today’s league, investing heavily in the position is often seen as a risky move, especially when teams can find productive backs on cheaper contracts.
The Steelers themselves have already found great value in Warren, an undrafted free agent, while Harris—despite being a first-round pick—has not consistently justified his draft status. With his contract set to expire, the Steelers must weigh whether he is worth a sizable investment moving forward.
Steelers' Najee Harris Has Done A Lot Of Good In Pittsburgh As Well
At the same time, it’s worth noting that Harris has been a durable and reliable player. He has never missed a game in his four seasons and has consistently produced respectable rushing totals, even if his efficiency hasn’t been elite. He also remains a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield, which adds to his overall value. If the Steelers do decide to let him walk, they will need to ensure they have the right pieces in place to replace not just his production, but also his durability and leadership in the locker room.
Ultimately, Pittsburgh’s decision will come down to whether they believe Harris can take another step forward in a more well-rounded offense. With Arthur Smith now leading the unit for a second season, the Steelers are expected to emphasize a more physical running game even further.
It will be fascinating to see how the Steelers approach the running back position and whether they view Harris as part of their long-term plans.
