Every offseason, there’s a contract or two that leaves folks scratching their heads. The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ extension of superstar pass rusher T.J. Watt shouldn’t be in that group, yet one analyst isn’t too fond of the move.
After all, inking one of the game’s best players to a three-year, $123 million contract isn’t anything crazy. With that said, Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report isn’t buying that logic. He uses the Las Vegas Raiders‘ release of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins as a prime example of a commitment gone wrong.
In a story naming blockbuster contracts teams are “likely to regret,” the Watt deal headlines the list.
Analyst Says Steelers Will Regret Extending T.J. Watt Down the Road
Watt came into year No. 9 feeling refreshed and motivated, but Gagnon is selling that buzz. He thinks the mileage he already has on his body could prove costly down the line.
Given the combination of workload, age and injury history, the analyst writes that the Steelers will “despise” paying Watt so much once this Aaron Rodgers window is closed.
“Watt already has more than 6,000 snaps under his belt and has produced fewer than 12 sacks in two of his last three seasons,” Gagnon wrote. “Injuries were a factor in 2022, but that counts for a guy who is now on the wrong side of 30, and his production fell off a cliff despite a complete season in 2024. I think the Steelers will despise owing him $42 million when they’re in the midst of an inevitable post-Rodgers rebuild in 2027.”
Indeed, it is a significant chunk of money for a somewhat aging player. Watt counts for $23.4M against the salary cap this year, which is a bargain for his expected production. After that, though, the numbers balloon. 2026 and 2027’s cap hits are $42M each, counting for respective percentages of 14.2% and 13.5% compared to the team’s overall budget. Add in the fact that those salaries are fully guaranteed, and it’s a calculated gamble.
Watt remains tremendous, however. He played in all 17 regular-season games a year ago and set a career-high in forced fumbles with 6. He also logged 61 tackles (19 for loss), 11.5 sacks and 4 passes broken up. He extended his Pro Bowl streak to seven seasons and made second-team All-Pro while ranking fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Pro Football Focus graded him as their No. 3 edge player.
Pittsburgh Didn’t Have a Much Better Choice in Watt Matter
With that in mind, what were the Steelers supposed to do? Letting Watt play out the 2025-26 campaign and subsequently hitting free agency would’ve been a massive risk to take. Slapping him with one or two franchise tags in future years fosters a potentially hostile environment. That’s without even considering the possibility of a trade request. Simply put, locking Watt up made the most sense for the continuation of a good working relationship.
Watt is an irreplaceable player. Trading him wouldn’t have recouped enough to get neutral value for 2025. Speaking of which, every move the Steelers have made at the macro level is to maximize this window. Signing Rodgers is at the forefront. Landing him is for now. Trading for players like Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith and DK Metcalf pertains to various timelines. Watt needed to be a part of this group in 2025-26 and beyond, even after Rodgers presumably rides off into the sunset.
If absolutely necessary, the Steelers can get out of this deal once – and if – age truly derails it. Gagnon’s point about 2027 is valid; Pittsburgh isn’t finding a way out of that. In 2028, though, Over the Cap indicates that Watt can be released and save just over $36M against the cap. That comes with $10M in dead money but in a worst-case scenario, it’s more than palatable.
The Watt extension was absolutely necessary. There’s no doubt about it. It’s the type of contract teams do with future Hall of Fame talents, regardless of whether it blows up.
