Pittsburgh Steelers HC Mike Tomlin doesn’t live in his fears, but he also doesn’t live in analytics. So while analytics bots might call him a coward, I’m sure he has other ideas about his decision to punt Sunday during a critical juncture of the game Sunday in Philadelphia. According to the Surrender Index, which purports to gauge how risk-averse decisions to punt are, the Steelers’ fourth-quarter punt was one of the most cowardly punts of the century.
With a little under 11 minutes to play in the fourth quarter, Tomlin’s Steelers punted on 4th and 7, trailing by 14, on the Eagles’ 46. They never got the ball back, but obviously Tomlin couldn’t have foreseen that. The Eagles masterfully executed the ensuing offensive possession and managed to take up the rest of the clock. And that was after being pinned inside their own 5.
“With a Surrender Index of 16.53, this punt ranks at the 98th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2024 season, and the 95th percentile of all punts since 1999”, the Surrender Index bot offered. The fact that the Steelers never saw the ball again obviously strengthens the argument but that is in hindsight. Courage is not judged by results.
PIT decided to punt to PHI from the PHI 46 on 4th & 7 with 10:40 remaining in the 4th while losing 13 to 27.
With a Surrender Index of 16.53, this punt ranks at the 98th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2024 season, and the 95th percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 16, 2024
While even the creator of the Surrender Index acknowledges its parameters are arbitrary, the variables are obvious enough. If you want a little more detail into the exact numbers, you can read this article. But with the Steelers down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter across midfield, there is obviously some cowardliness. It was still a long fourth down, though.
And the Steelers did get off a long punt, which Tomlin counted on when making that call. One could argue that the Steelers actually should have retained possession, but that had nothing to do with the decision to punt.
Had the Steelers gone for it on fourth down and failed, the Eagles wouldn’t have been far out of field-goal range. One field goal would have made it a three-possession game, which I’m sure is what Tomlin was thinking.
Presumably, he didn’t feel confident in his offense’s ability to convert. Given the way the Steelers’ offense played for most of the day that was actually wise. While the Surrender Index might label the punt a cowardly one, I don’t know that it wasn’t the better option. We’ll never know, of course, because we can’t know how each scenario would have played out.
We only know how reality played out, and it made the Steelers and Tomlin look like cowards. But how often does a team with a two-score lead sustain a nearly 11-minute drive to close out a game? I’m guessing not often.
