The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking to return to the form that saw the franchise create the first and only dynasty of the 2020s — but it’s not going to be easy to get there. Standing in the way of a third Stanley Cup championship in six seasons is the Florida Panthers, who have been to each of the last two Finals and won it all in 2024.
Say what you want about the National Hockey League’s playoff format, but it’s clear that this matchup would make a lot more sense as an Eastern Conference Final. Just like the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars in the West — arguably the conference’s two best teams — a couple of the NHL’s behemoths will be out early.
With the Toronto Maple Leafs locking up the Atlantic Division on Tuesday night, the Lightning and Panthers will face off for the fourth time in five seasons beginning this weekend. And like it’s always been, the Battle of Florida is going to be a bloodbath.
Lightning, Panthers could be 2 best teams in Eastern Conference
There’s never a dull moment when Tampa Bay and Florida meet in the postseason. No team outside the Sunny State has been out of the Eastern Conference in six years, when the Boston Bruins lost to the St. Louis Blues in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.
Tampa was the cream of the crop for three years, winning Lord Stanley in 2020 and 2021, and just falling short of the threepeat due to a terrific Colorado Avalanche team in 2022. The Bolts were beaten in the first round by the Leafs in 2023, and then it was the Panthers’ time. Florida won the East in 2023 before being manhandled by the Vegas Golden Knights in five games in the Finals.
But the Cats learned their lesson last year, dominating the East en route to their first championship in franchise history. Although they were oh-so-close to going down as the team that blew a 3-0 Finals lead, they were able to lock it down and win a tight 2-1 Game 7 against the Edmonton Oilers at Amerant Bank Arena.
Most likely, the path to the NHL’s ultimate series will again run through one of the Lightning or Panthers. The Metropolitan Division has been lacking as of late, with the Washington Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils all struggling mightily. The Ottawa Senators are just returning to the postseason after seven straight years out and there aren’t overly high expectations. And the Leafs, although an elite regular season team once again, have been past the first round exactly one time since 2004.
So, what’s it going to take for Tampa to avenge last year’s five-game Round 1 loss to Florida? The key will be goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy — who the NHLPA just voted as the league’s best at his position — returning to peak playoff form.
Lightning getting peak Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov is dream scenario
Vasilevskiy has struggled in each of the last two postseasons, and that’s a main reason why the Lightning were beaten by the Panthers in 2024 and Leafs in 2023. He posted an under .900 save percentage and over 3.00 goals-against average in both series. He was nowhere near his best, but he’s only a few seasons removed from true playoff dominance.
The star Russian was masterful between the pipes from 2020-22, posting a ridiculous 1.90 goals-against average in both of the Cup runs, along with a .927 save percentage in 2020 and an even better .937 the next year. He won the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP in 2021 and was well-deserving; he even could have won it in 2020 as well.
Luckily for Tampa, Vasilevskiy seems to have returned to form in 2024-25, and he’s been one of the league’s best netminders throughout the regular season. He’s won 38 games this year, added six shutouts, and managed an excellent 2.18 GAA and .921 SV% in the process.
To beat Florida, Vasilevskiy is going to need to be at least as good as his old buddy Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been lights out the last two playoff runs. If both goalies are at their best, this series could be a toss-up. But if Vasilevskiy can outduel Bobrovsky, the Bolts will have a great chance.
While the Panthers might have more depth, what they don’t have is a legitimate top-three player like Nikita Kucherov. The Russian led the playoffs in scoring both years the Lightning won the Stanley Cup, racking up 34 points in 25 games in 2019-20 and following it up with 32 points in 23 tilts the next year. And although they weren’t able to go back-to-back-to-back, he managed 27 points in 23 games in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
After snapping to the tune of 144 points in 81 games last year, the 31-year-old has been outrageous again in 2024-25, and will win the Art Ross Trophy for the second straight year with 121 points in 77 games. If Vasilevskiy can find his early 2020s playoff form, and Kucherov can continue piling up points, that’ll go a long way for this team’s 2025 championship hopes — especially in the first round.
A healthy Florida, especially Matthew Tkachuk, could be nightmare for Tampa
Unfortunately for the Lightning, the Panthers are a true wagon with star power at all three positions. Bobrovsky is a proven playoff performer, while the roster is battle tested and laser focused on returning to the Stanley Cup Final. Gustav Forsling has mostly shut down the best players on every team he’s faced, while captain Sasha Barkov is still the best two-way player in the game.
But they’re beaten up. Tkachuk hasn’t played since the 4 Nations Face-Off, and if he isn’t his usual superstar self in the series, it gives Tampa a huge edge. Aaron Ekblad will be out for Games 1 and 2 while serving a PED suspension, while guys like Sam Bennett and trade deadline acquisition Brad Marchand are coming off injuries.
Without a doubt, the nightmare scenario is that the Panthers (outside of Ekblad) are fully healthy and producing for Game 1. That’s especially true for Tkachuk. He is a complete difference-maker in the playoffs and could tilt what will likely be a 50/50 series. Most of the Panthers have been rested down the stretch, and it would be a nightmare for the Lightning if Tkachuk joined a healthy group for Game 1 and looked like he didn’t miss a beat. That’s unlikely but certainly possible.
It wouldn’t be surprising at all if, like mentioned earlier, the winner of this series ends up representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals yet again. The Battle of Florida will be appointment viewing as it usually is, and it’ll be interesting to see if Kucherov and Vasilevskiy can drag this roster out of the first round for the first time since the final season of the dynasty in 2022.
