The Washington Capitals started the 2024-25 season with their best record in nine years. Washington had their dominant, five-game winning streak halted by Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night, but the early-season results still tell a great story for this year’s team.
Much of the Caps’ success has been driven by their excellence at five-on-five, something last year’s roster could only dream of. Their newfound even-strength superiority is particularly shown in the underlying statistics behind the play of their top two forward lines.
The two combinations rank within the top 17 forward lines in the entire NHL regarding five-on-five expected goals percentage (minimum 50 minutes TOI). The New York Islanders are the only other team in the league that can claim that.
Dylan Strome’s line, featuring Aliaksei Protas on the left and Alex Ovechkin on the right, falls within the top 10 at ninth, seeing 64.9 percent of the expected goals. Pierre-Luc Dubois, new to the team this season, sees his line with Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson in 17th, garnering 57.1 percent of the expected goals.
At the end of the 2023-24 season, the Capitals had just one of their primary lines, made up of McMichael, Protas, and Anthony Mantha, ranking within the top 50. Mantha departed the team at the trade deadline, so the club finished the campaign with just one line in the top 80.
This year, the two lines have translated that superb play into real offense, with Washington scoring a combined 10 five-on-five goals with them on the ice. Dubois’s trio leads the way with six. That production, buoyed further by solid work from the club’s fourth line, sees the Capitals finishing the chances they’re supposed to (-0.1 goal differential above expected), which was a difficult task during Spencer Carbery’s first year in charge.
The forward lines are working well in conjunction with the team’s new-look defense corps, making the Capitals one of the top teams in the NHL to begin the year. Overall, the team ranks sixth best in the league in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.25) and ninth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (2.70).
They are one of just a handful of teams that can claim that positive differential, as you can see in the top right quadrant of this data vis provided by JFresh.
Washington has racked up 10 standings points through seven games and is third in the Eastern Conference based on points percentage (.714). Their next test will come against the New York Rangers, who are in first with 13 points through eight games (.813).
The two Metropolitan Division foes will square off at Capital One Arena on Tuesday night.
