The Boston Red Sox entered July five games above .500 and within two games of a wild-card spot. To The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, that makes it clear that the team should be buyers at the trade deadline. What’s less clear is what they should do with Kenley Jansen.
Rosenthal outlined the conditions on which the Red Sox should trade their soon-to-be free agent reliever — a player whom experts once assumed was destined to be traded while the Red Sox were struggling to stay at .500.
“For all the talk of moving Kenley Jansen, the Red Sox should only do it if they can find a team willing to trade a potential free agent starter for a potential free agent reliever,” Rosenthal wrote in a piece published Monday, July 1.
Jansen is in the last year of a two-year, $32 million deal with Boston, and at 36, is still showing he can be among the best relievers in the game. He has 16 saves this season for the Red Sox with a 2.22 ERA, more than a strikeout an inning, and a 2.10 FIP.
The Red Sox Could Trade Kenley Jansen for a Starter
It’s a hard sell to flip a reliever rental for a starter rental; the starter will provide more innings and is generally considered more valuable.
Rosenthal floated the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler as a possibility, though he conceded it might not be the perfect fit. Buehler is currently on the injured list with right hip inflammation and is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. It would be a risky move for either side.
If the Dodgers’ starters begin limping back from the injured list, that could make someone like James Paxton available, though the Red Sox might want to aim higher. Michael Wacha is another intriguing name, and the Royals should be looking for bullpen help.
After a slow start to the season, Wacha has been electric. Over his past 7 starts, he has a 2.43 ERA with opponents hitting .203 off him. Coincidentally, his contract matches up with Jansen’s almost exactly — it would just be two playoff caliber teams swapping to address areas of need.
A survey of 35 baseball executives showed Jansen as the third most likely reliever to be traded before July 30, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden.
Bowden wrote on June 26 that it was “hard for me to believe they would trade their closer at the deadline. However, rival execs reminded me there could be several ‘buyer to buyer’-type trades this year and that Jansen could be expendable in the right swap.”
It Might Be Smarter for Boston to Keep Kenley Jansen
If the Red Sox decide they’re contenders, then keeping Jansen and finding another way to trade for a starter would make more sense, as Rosenthal writes.
“If the Sox are serious about contending, they should not trust Liam Hendriks, coming off Tommy John surgery, to close,” he said.
Hendriks still has not pitched this season, but told reporters over the weekend that he is targeting an August return. If he comes back, it will be with 5 total innings pitched over the last 22 months.
The Red Sox have a strong stable of arms behind Jansen, but none with serious experience as closer.
The issue runs even deeper than bullpen production, according to Rosenthal. Red Sox fans want to see team ownership make a serious run at a championship.
“The Sox should be serious about contending,” Rosenthal wrote. “Their average attendance is down only slightly from last season, in large part because fans treasure the Fenway experience. But if the team is in reasonable position, trades of potential free agents such as Jansen, outfielder Tyler O’Neill and right-hander Nick Pivetta would further alienate the fan base.”
The Red Sox are in striking distance of a playoff spot — by definition, a reasonable position. But Fangraphs also gives them only a 31% chance at the postseason and a 1.2% chance at a World Series title. Ownership has to ask: At what point is it worth it to make the big move?
