The five men currently in the Cubs starting rotation — Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski — have combined for 23 starts so far this year. That’s 60.5 percent of the 38 games the Cubs have played in 2024 to date.
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In those 23 starts, those five have combined for 129⅓ innings (an average of 5.6 innings per start) and posted an ERA of 1.39 and a WHIP of 0.936. They’ve allowed seven home runs and struck out 112. (This does not include Wesneski’s two relief appearances.) The Cubs are 15-8 in games started by those five.
The other four men who have started games for the Cubs are Ben Brown, Kyle Hendricks, Luke Little and Jordan Wicks.
Let’s sort those into two pairs. First, the two currently on the injured list, Wicks and Hendricks. They’ve been mediocre to downright bad. They have combined for 44 innings and posted an 8.18 ERA and 1.795 WHIP, with 10 home runs allowed. The Cubs are 4-6 in the 10 starts by Wicks and Hendricks, five starts each. It should be noted that most of this bad pitching is from Hendricks, who has a 12.00 ERA in 21 innings. Wicks’ 4.70 in 23 innings, while bad, isn’t THAT bad. And Hendricks is responsible for eight of those 10 home runs.
The other five starts have gone to Ben Brown (four) and Luke Little (Little was an opener April 3 against the Rockies). In those starts, Brown and Little combined for 20 innings (19 of them from Brown) with a 2.70 ERA, 1.100 WHIP and one home run allowed. The Cubs are 3-2 in games started by Brown and Little.
Eventually, Hendricks and Wicks will come off the injured list. Hendricks is currently on a rehab assignment; he’ll start again for Triple-A Iowa, probably Sunday. Hendricks’ rehab assignment began May 2 and pitcher rehab assignments can last up to 30 days. Given the success of the current rotation, I’d think the Cubs will probably keep The Professor on that assignment for the full 30 days to buy themselves some time to make a decision.
About Wicks, little has been heard. He was placed on the injured list April 28 with a left forearm strain, something that, as you likely know, can be a precursor to Tommy John surgery.
So let’s assume Wicks is out for a while. Even if he is ready to return, he’s got options remaining and could be returned to Iowa.
What to do with Hendricks? Even if he’s deemed ready to go, why mess with success? The five current Cubs starters are doing so well, I’d think Jed Hoyer and Craig Counsell would love to see that simply continue.
But once Hendricks is ready to return or the 30 days is up, the Cubs will likely give him some opportunities to show he’s got something left.
The obvious choice here, even if he continues to throw as well as he has, is to move Wesneski to the bullpen. That would solidify the pen by giving it another multi-inning option, so that’s probably the right call. In that case I think you would likely say goodbye to Colten Brewer, who hasn’t done too badly, mostly in mop-up situations. Perhas the Cubs could get Brewer through waivers and keep him at Iowa.
It’s been a while since the Cubs have had too many good starting pitchers and have to find places beyond the five-man rotation for some of them. I suppose it’s possible the Cubs could try some sort of modified version of a six-man rotation, especially during times without off days. But as long as these guys keep throwing the way they have, they’ll make it more difficult for Hoyer and Counsell to make a decision.
As noted above, that’s a very good problem to have. And even with all the rough starts from Wicks and Hendricks, overall Cubs starters enter tonight’s game with a 3.07 ERA, third-best in MLB (only the Phillies and Red Sox are better).
