The Kyle Shanahan Debate: When is it Time for the 49ers to Move On?

Kyle Shanahan is the gift and the curse. He’s taken the 49ers to two Super Bowls in five years but come up short after blowing 4th quarter leads. Now the team’s Super Bowl window is closing and that’s fed a debate on whether it’s time to move on from Shanahan.

The Generational Divide

If you are a 49ers fan from 1995 or later, you live in the Hip District of The Faithful. Shanahan is the best coach you’ve known. Based on what you’ve experienced he has defined your standard: frequent contention, in the mix. What you fear is firing him and a return to the bad old days of Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly. Why fire the guy that has brought you the most success over nearly the past 30 years?

Fans that have followed the team from 1994 or earlier are from Old Town. They’ve seen at least one championship live, many have seen all five. The Hip District is 0-3 in the Super Bowl, Old Town is 5-0.

The residents have seen what a title requires from a coach, an offensive coordinator, a GM. They know Bill Walsh is better than Shanahan, particularly as a GM together with John McVay. Old Town’s standard is ring or bust, it’s what they’ve experienced. Their emotion is frustration, at no ring in 30 years, and a growing belief that Shanahan will not deliver one.

My advice is to walk around in the shoes of the opposite neighborhood, to understand this from both sides. For Old Town it’s not about hating Shanahan, it’s about not believing in him, they’ve seen far better leadership and decision-making from Bill Walsh. They believe Shanahan has fatal flaws preventing a ring. In my case, that focuses on Shanahan the defacto GM more than the coach.

I believe Shanahan will insist on remaining as the Niners holy trinity (coach, OC, GM) which means if I want a new GM, Shanahan has to go.

For the Hip District, they are justified in their distrust of ownership to get the coaching hire right given the track record of more busts than successes.

Shanahan’s success has elevated the profile of the team. The 49ers used to settle for coaches from NFL Europe, they now warrant a visit from the top candidates. Shanahan has ironically made it easier to move on from him.

Steve Young, the Mayor and conscience of Old Town, put it bluntly in a recent comment. “We gotta figure out a way to win a championship. Not a division. Not hang around.”

Can Shanahan Deliver a Ring?

This is the essence of it. Hip District says the Niners win the last Super Bowl if Dre Greenlaw doesn’t get hurt. Old Town says Shanahan using the offensive line to the right of Trent Williams as a cap savings center, combined with rarely using early picks on the OL, makes the line too weak to bling. A Super Bowl loss is baked in the cake.

The conclusion you draw is based on your faith in Shanahan, or lack thereof. Those who believe say it’s bad luck, keep knocking on the door and they’ll get through eventually. Those who don’t say it’s been eight years and the chances are fading, they cite Shanahan’s failures as GM and his stubborn refusal to learn and change.

There is truth in both perspectives. The Niners have had some bad luck, the weak OL is a direct result of Shanahan’s decisions and he won’t change. When given the best OL draft in 15 years, he yet again went with weapons in the first round.

If Shanahan refuses to change or take accountability, how will the Niners fate change?

Shanahan and Walsh

Beyond the rings and attention to detail in all three phases. Finishing. Shanahan 0-40 in his career in all roles when down by 8 points or more in the 4th, a recent stat from Josh Dubow of AP. Walsh in 1980 down 35-7 to New Orleans and down by 14 entering the 4th, the Niners make the biggest comeback in NFL history at the time, the game where Joe Montana first arrived, winning 38-35 in overtime.

Shanahan trades three #1s and a third for Trey Lance. Walsh trades a second and a fourth for Steve Young.

Not doing this to be mean, just proving there is better than Shanahan, particularly at GM. Yes, there’s some risk, but it’s time. Messages and messengers get stale, approaches play out. Don’t wait for the sake of appearances, make the replacement move for the best talent when it’s available.

The Opportunity

Detroit Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson is expected to move on to a head coaching job this off-season. He’s similar to Shanahan circa 2017 as a well-respected young offensive mind.

Coaching candidates are like the draft, there are some years with hot candidates and others with retreads. Keeping Shanahan another year means no Johnson. I see this like Walsh, better to move on a year too early rather than a year too late.

After the Super Bowl defeat, the Niners have lost some cohesion, they feel more like a collection of independent contractors than a team. Miss the playoffs this year and that will continue - as a championship gets further out of reach.

I don’t see Shanahan winning a ring this year, next year, or any year. In my view, his cast in stone choices as defacto GM prevent it. Many will disagree, including Jed York. I expect Shanahan to stay regardless of what happens this year. I don’t think that is the correct decision, but I’m from Old Town.