Dansby Swanson’s 2025 numbers look rough: .177 average, .233 OBP, and a .344 slugging percentage through 104 plate appearances. But as Tyler Koerth of ChiCitySports reported, the advanced metrics tell a more complicated story—one that’s equally encouraging and frustrating.
According to Statcast, Swanson is crushing the ball, starting with the good. His 91.7 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 79th percentile, and his hard-hit rate (52.9%) puts him in elite company. He’s squaring balls up, too—his 30.1% sweet spot rate is among the league’s best. So why the lack of production?
It comes down to what happens after contact. Swanson is hitting a career-high 63.2% fly balls—most of them to center or opposite field. That might work in a homer-friendly park, but it's a recipe for outs at Wrigley and other big outfields. His average launch angle is 20.7 degrees—borderline ideal—but paired with his spray chart, it’s just a bunch of loud flyouts.
Then there’s the plate discipline. Swanson’s strikeout rate is up to 28.8%, and he’s walking just 5.8% of the time. He’s chasing fewer pitches, but when he does swing outside the zone, his contact rate has cratered—from 53.6% historically to just 32.6% this year. That’s a massive drop in bat control on tough pitches, especially late in counts.
The bottom line is that Swanson isn’t lost at the plate; he’s just out of sync. The power is there. The swing decisions aren’t awful. But the numbers will stay flat unless he pulls the ball more and regains some of that two-strike grit. He’s too talented to stay down forever, but the process and results aren’t matching up right now. Also, his new torpedo bat isn't helping.
