The Green Bay Packers are 5 1/2-point favorites for Sunday’s home game against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and have qualified for the playoffs only once since 2015. However, these Cardinals are no joke. They rallied to stun the 49ers in San Francisco last week. They lost at Buffalo by six points and beat the Rams by 31. With a win, they’d be tied for first place in the NFC West.
Here are three reasons why the Packers should be on upset alert on Sunday
1. Kyler Murray
The phrase “one of one,” much like “GOAT,” has become so overused that it has almost no meaning. However, Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray really is a one-of-one talent. He’s got a big-time arm, elite athleticism and improved pocket presence through experience. He’s not the best quarterback in the NFL but he’s among the most dangerous.
“I’ve watched him in college and I’ve watched him on TV plenty of times, and I’ve spent all week watching him,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Dynamic player, not just as an athlete and a runner like everybody talks about, but he’s got a really strong arm. He’s got a really good release, and he can make some great throws.
“The ability that he has to make people miss and keep his eyes downfield and keep plays alive, because he’s not just looking to run the ball all the time, either. He’s an amazing player and an amazing athlete. There’s one clip where he’s kind of running around and he ducks and three guys run into each other like a Three Stooges episode.”
Murray is ninth in the NFL in passer rating and first in yards per carry. Eliminating run-out-the-clock kneel-downs, 10 of his 20 carries have gained at least 10 yards, including four of more than 20 yards.
On the Cardinals’ second offensive snap against the 49ers, he took a zone read 50 yards for a touchdown. He hit 21.27 mph on the play, the fastest by a quarterback in eight seasons, according to Next Gen Stats.
He’s 16-8 in his career with a rushing touchdown.
“He’s got the ability to make people miss and do some dynamic things,” Hafley continued. “We’ll definitely have our work cut out for us in that regard.”
The Packers have faced the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, so they’ve got recent experience against dual-threat quarterbacks. But Murray is a better runner than Hurts and he is a better passer than Richardson.
“Very opportunistic,” Murray said of Green Bay’s defense. “They have been playing really good football, lead the league in creating turnovers, have a lot of great players. It's going to be a good challenge for us on the road. A place I haven't played before personally. I'm really excited to go up there, first time, great environment, really historic place. A lot of great players have played in that stadium, so I'm excited about it.”
2. Red Zone
Seven is greater than three.
In the red zone, Arizona is ninth with a touchdown rate of 64.3 percent. It is a perfect 100 percent in goal-to-go situations, with seven touchdowns in seven opportunities.
That elite attack will face a mediocre Packers defense that is 21st in the red zone (61.1 percent touchdowns) and 19th in goal-to-go (77.8 percent).
“When we get down there, the emphasis is on putting the ball in the end zone and not kicking field goals,” Murray said. “I think we've done a good job of that so far. We have to keep that up, but it also goes back to practice. Since training camp, we've been really crispy down there and, hopefully, we can continue to do so.”
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s offense is 18th in the red zone (50.0 percent) and 24th in goal-to-go (62.5 percent) while Arizona’s defense is 17th in the red zone (54.6 percent touchdowns) and 10th in goal-to-go (60.0 percent).
However, red-zone defense was the reason why the Cardinals upset the 49ers. San Francisco went 1-for-6 in the red zone, including 1-of-5 in goal-to-go.
Meanwhile, Green Bay opened the season a ghastly 3-of-10 in the red zone (2-of-5 in goal-to-go) but is 6-of-8 in the red zone (and 3-of-3 in goal-to-go) the last two games.
“The one thing with their defense, they bring a lot of confusing looks,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “So, if you’re not on the same page, you cut a guy loose and you get a negative play down in the red zone.
“Those are really hard to make up when you’re behind the sticks down there. So, they did a good job just keeping them in second-and-long, things like that, where they just made the plays when they had to make the plays.”
Among quarterbacks with at least 10 red-zone passes, Murray is fifth in passer rating (119.6) and Love is ninth (114.5).
3. Turnovers
Turnovers are the reason why the Packers have a winning record. They are first with 14 takeaways, second with nine interceptions and tied for first with a plus-seven turnover margin.
Green Bay has turned big plays on defense into points on the scoreboard. The Packers have scored 45 points off turnovers, second-most behind Minnesota’s 49.
Will that trend continue against the Cardinals? Arizona has turned the ball over only five times – one in each game – and Murray has thrown only two interceptions.
“I'm not out there playing scared or anything like that, but we understand going into this game that that's something that they do well,” Murray said. “And how do we win this game? Well, OK.
“In any game, really, you don't want to turn the ball over. But this team, obviously, is looking for ways to create turnovers and they’re doing a great job of it, so we have to take care of the ball. That’s any game.”
Overall, the Cardinals are plus-2. After having one giveaway and one takeaway in each of the first four games, they had three takeaways and one giveaway against San Francisco.
