The Tennessee Titans are poised to select their new franchise QB with the 1st overall pick in roughly a month, and that’s exciting for everybody involved. Cam Ward will bring new juice to the team he joins, from the fans and his teammates, all the way up the ranks of the organization. But he’ll also bring with him a brand new set of expectations. And those expectations have historically led to the rapid dismissal of figureheads; namely, head coaches.
For some reason, there’s this popular notion that drafting a young QB can buy a hot seat coach and/or GM more time. That couldn’t be further from the truth. I think the reason it’s easy to think that it buys you more time is because for us as spectators, it minimizes fanbase frustration. When a fanbase is most frustrated is when somebody is most likely to be fired, right? So we get a new QB, our general satisfaction level rises, and more time is bought for those on the hot seat!
While it’s true a new QB increases general satisfaction in the moment, all it really does is raise the stakes for everybody involved. It accelerates timelines. It increases overall investment. When those proverbial chips are pushed into the center of the table, the scrutiny of that hand goes way up. And when things go poorly at the start—as they often do, with a rookie QB joining a bad football team—fingers get pointed in a hurry.
History bears this out. Take a look at the Year 1 results for each of the following top-3 pick quarterbacks. This is a 10 year sample:
2024
- 1.1 Caleb Williams: Fired HC/OC
- 1.2 Jayden Daniels: Immediately awesome
- 1.3 Drake Maye: Fired HC/OC
2023
- 1.1 Bryce Young: Fired GM/HC/OC
- 1.2 CJ Stroud: Immediately awesome
2021
- 1.1 Trevor Lawrence: Fired HC/OC
- 1.2 Zach Wilson: Robert Saleh rookie HC
- 1.3 Trey Lance: Kyle Shanahan established HC
2020
- 1.1 Joe Burrow: Zac Taylor 2nd year HC
2019
- 1.1 Kyler Murray: Kliff Kingsbury rookie HC
2018
- 1.1 Baker Mayfield: Fired HC/OC
- 1.3 Sam Darnold: Fired GM/HC/OC
2017
- 1.2 Mitchell Trubisky: Fired HC/OC
2016
- 1.1 Jared Goff: Fired HC/OC
- 1.2 Carson Wentz: Doug Pederson rookie HC
2015
- 1.1 Jameis Winston: Fired HC
- 1.2 Marcus Mariota: Fired GM/HC
Needless to say, it’s a bit of a bloodbath. Let’s boil down the findings a bit: In the last decade, 17 QBs were taken top-3 in the draft. 10 of their Head Coaches were fired during or after their rookie year. 3 of their GMs were fired during or after their rookie year.
How about those who did survive the first year? What were the circumstances of their job retention? Of the 7 QBs who didn’t lose their head coach as a rookie, 2 were immediately awesome players. 3 of the surviving coaches were rookies as well, and were given a second year. There's also Kyle Shanahan, who benefitted from being a highly established head coach already. And the remaining 1? This is the familiar territory for Brian Callahan.
The outlier is Zac Taylor with the Bengals. He was in his second year as a head coach when Joe Burrow was the 1st overall pick in the draft, and he survived a lackluster first season with his new QB. Burrow wasn’t exactly struggling at first, but he didn’t light the world on fire either. He looked like what he was: a 1st overall pick on a team that still needed a lot of work. But in his 10th NFL start, he went down with a scary lower body injury that ended his year. Did that help Taylor’s standing on the hot seat when the season ended? Impossible to say for sure, but once Burrow went down they successfully lost their way all the way to the 5th overall pick, where they reunited Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase. The rest is history.
Not only is Callahan familiar with this situation since he was the OC on Taylor’s staff at the time, but it’s also surprisingly identical to the situation he finds himself in now: a second year coach, about to draft a QB with the 1st overall pick.
The precedent here is risky to say the least, and the path to sticking around seems narrow. but it’s a needle he and his staff are going to do everything in their power to thread. If history is any indicator, Cam Ward having a hot start or (God forbid) an untimely injury might be the only way to ensure this staff is around for the long run.
