As the temperatures change, so has the tone around Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
After starting the season red-hot, leading the league with 11 touchdowns through four games, Darnold garnered NFC Offensive Player of the Month honors in September.
However, Sam-tember has come to an end.
He’s thrown just one touchdown in his last 10 quarters of action.
The analytics offer a mixed view of Darnold. He is seventh in quarterback rating (104.0) but No. 18 in ESPN’s QBR. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks him with the 18th-highest passing grade through seven weeks.
While Darnold’s play has changed with the seasons, Star Tribune columnist Michael Rand has also noticed a shift in “vibes” from head coach Kevin O’Connell.
“Vibes are unscientific and unspecific, but the vibes on Darnold feel like they are shifting. You hear Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell talk more frequently lately about missed opportunities on offense, many of which circle back to Darnold,” Rand wrote in an October 23 column.
Rand revisited the Vikings’ 31-29 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 7 as an emblematic of what Minnesota can “reasonably expect” from Darnold.
“You sense the Vikings let one slip away against a very good Detroit team, unable to take advantage of two huge plays (stopping a fake punt and scoring another defensive touchdown) because they couldn’t make enough small ones,” he wrote.
Darnold has played well enough to maintain job security. O’Connell has offered nothing but praise to bolster his confidence.
But amid a season that has the makings of being special, the expectations have changed. He’s no longer just the bridge to J.J. McCarthy for a team expected to place last in the division.
Minnesota has a case to be the top seed in the NFC; but whether Darnold can realize the Vikings’ potential is the biggest question facing the franchise two weeks before the trade deadline — when they could make an all-in move if Darnold proves it a worthy bet.
Vikings-Rams on Primetime to Define Rest of Season
Minnesota’s Week 7 loss to the Lions was the first time where the Vikings’ defense was overwhelmed by an opponent.
Darnold played steady, putting up 259 yards passing for a touchdown and an interception — what Rand called a “baseline” of what to expect from Darnold.
“The eye test was a little less impressive, but the game also seemed like the baseline for what the Vikings should reasonably expect from Darnold for the rest of the season,” he wrote.
Even through a tougher stretch of the schedule, Darnold hasn’t blown up a game as many outside the organization predicted. He’s played safer with the ball than earlier in his career, which is what O’Connell has asked of him.
If that’s his floor, Minnesota is in good shape to make the playoffs. But if he can recapture Samtember again, the Vikings could be a true juggernaut capable of contending for a Super Bowl.
However, if there are worse games to come with more tape coming out of Darnold’s play, Minnesota will have to reassess their goals this season and whether an all-in move at the trade deadline makes sense.
Thursday night’s matchup with the Los Angeles Rams will be proving grounds of how the second half of the season could look for the Vikings.
Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford Trade Chatter Clouds Primetime Matchup
Trade rumors have circled surrounding the prospects of the Vikings trading for Matthew Stafford by the trade deadline — and Thursday’s game will only add more intrigue.
If the Rams lose, they’ll be 2-5 and be longshots for the postseason. If Stafford plays well, he could be an intriguing trade candidate.
But if he plays well enough and Los Angeles wins, they could have revitalized hopes of making the postseason.
Darnold is already playing to prove himself to his next team with McCarthy poised to take over next year. His first primetime appearance could go a long way in rebuilding his reputation ahead of the league trade deadline.
