The Minnesota Vikings have been chasing the Detroit Lions in the NFC North for the majority of the season. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team got some excellent news in Week 15 when the Lions finally saw their 11-game winning streak come to an end when they dropped a 48-42 decision to the explosive Buffalo Bills.
While the Vikings are still technically in second place in the division, both teams have 12-2 records with three regular-season games to go. The final game of the regular season will see the Vikings go to Ford Field, and if the Vikings can beat the Lions on their home field and not lose their other two games, Minnesota will end up as the NFC North winner.
The Vikings have won seven games in a row after beating the Chicago Bears 30-12 Monday night. If they can stretch that winning streak to 10 games behind quarterback Sam Darnold and wideout Justin Jefferson, they have the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Both the Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles could end up with 15-2 records, but Minnesota has the advantage in strength of schedule at this point, and that would deliver the edge on earning a bye and the NFC playoffs going through U.S. Bank Stadium.
That’s the ideal scenario. However, if they can’t take the division title away from the Lions, the best they could finish is with the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. All division winners take the top four seeds, so even if the Vikings had better records than multiple division winners, they would be forced to start the postseason on the road.
Nightmare scenario No. 1, Vikings face Rams
If the Vikings finish second to the Lions in the NFC North, would likely play the division winner with the fourth-best record. Heading into Week 16, that opponent would be the Los Angeles Rams.
Both the Rams and the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers have 8-6 records, but the Bucs would have the edge on the Rams because they have a better record within the NFC.
The Vikings and Rams met in Week 8, and the Vikings suffered their second defeat of the season in that game. The Rams were desperate for a win at that point and they rallied for a 30-20 victory in Los Angeles. A matchup with the Rams would not necessarily be a problem for the Vikings, but it is a nightmare because the No. 1 seed is within their grasp.
Failing to get a first-round bye and going on the road to the West Coast to compete in the playoffs is troubling. However, linebacker Blake Cashman is capable of leading the team to a strong road performance in the postseason.
Nightmare scenario No. 2, Vikings face Buccaneers
If the Vikings fail to secure the No. 1 seed and finish second to the Lions, the Vikings could have a much tougher matchup if the Rams bypassed the Bucs and took the No. 3 seed.
That would leave the Bucs as the No. 4 seed, and Tampa Bay appears to be a tougher matchup than the Rams. The Bucs struggled in the middle part of the schedule as they dropped four consecutive games from Week 7 through 10.
However, since dropping a 23-20 decision to the San Francisco 49ers, the Bucs have won four straight games and quarterback Baker Mayfield has gotten hot. It could be much harder to go to Tampa for a first-round playoff game against a quarterback who is on fire like Mayfield.
The Tampa Bay signal caller was on top of his game in Week 15 when he completed 22 of 27 passes for 288 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Mayfield demonstrated his confidence and skill throughout the game, and beating him on his home field would be a major challenge for the Vikings.
Nightmare scenario No. 3, Vikings fall to 3rd place
The Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 4 and have a two-game lead over Green Bay. However, if the Vikings lose to the Packers in Week 16 and also drop their finale against the Lions, the Packers could bypass them.
The Vikings have a 3-1 NFC North record, but that division record would fall to 3-3 with losses to Green Bay and Detroit. The Packers have a 1-3 division record, but beating the Vikings and closing the season with a win over the Bears would improve that mark to 3-3.
If the Vikings fell to the No. 6 seed, they would seemingly have to face a tougher opponent than if they were the No. 5 seed. However, since the situation between the Rams and Buccaneers is still to be determined, they could face either opponent as the No. 6 seed.
Anything but the No. 1 seed would be something of a nightmare for Vikings
Now that they have made up the one-game deficit on the Lions, the Vikings control their destiny. They could conceivably fail to win the division and then go on a road winning streak in the playoffs, but that’s not likely.
They need to take advantage of their opportunity, secure the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. If they don’t do that, it will be something of a nightmare for the Vikings.
