The Minnesota Vikings have a quarterback quandary brewing. What was once a clear plan to groom rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy likely remains in place. But it has been clouded by his knee injury and veteran Sam Darnold’s performance this season.
Darnold is on a one-year, $10 million contract and is in line for a significant raise in free agency. There are calls for the Vikings to at least explore keeping him.
However, The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia warns against making the “Daniel Jones mistake.”
“First, we must look at how the Vikings have gotten to 11-2,” Kapadia wrote on December 10. “The defense isn’t performing as well lately as it did earlier in the season, but it’s still ranked first in DVOA. The offense, meanwhile, is 14th. You don’t have to look any further to identify which side of the ball is the strength of this team. We can also drill down on Darnold’s individual performance. He is 11th in success rate and 12th in EPA per pass play.
“Before this season, Darnold performed like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL over a six-year span. Is it more likely that Darnold has suddenly transformed into a different guy, or that the Vikings have a situation that would be conducive for a lot of quarterbacks to thrive? While Darnold has clearly improved, I still think it’s the latter.”
Darnold started the season hot but hit a rough patch in Weeks 8 and 9, throwing 5 interceptions to 3 touchdowns. The Vikings QB has since bounced back, passing for 11 scores with 0 picks from Week 11 through Week 14.
Still, Kapadia’s “bet” is that the Vikings feel the same way, which is where Jones’ situation with his former team, the New York Giants, is informative.
Sam Darnold Expected to Command $37 to $40 Million on Next Contract in Free Agency
“In some ways, this situation has similarities to what we saw with the Giants and Daniel Jones a couple years ago,” Kapadia wrote. “Jones was a bad starter for three seasons, performed well in 2022, and then the team signed him to a long-term deal. How’d that work out?”
Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract after beating the Vikings in the playoffs.
The Giants incurred a $47.1 million dead cap hit for cutting Jones, the second-largest charge in NFL history.
The expectation is Darnold leaves the Vikings in free agency. But his return remains within the realm of possibilities, especially if he leads the Vikings deep into the postseason. Over The Cap projects the Vikings to have $76.4 million in cap space in 2025.
“One factor in that decision will be Darnold’s price point. To work to ascertain that, I asked a few execs Sunday night where they saw Darnold’s market,” Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer wrote on December 9. “One guessed he’d command a three-year, $110 million contract, with more than $40 million guaranteed. Another said he thought the Vikings should consider franchise tagging him, even though the price on that projects to top $41 million, and that he’d probably get $40 million per year if he hit the open market.”
Despite the Vikings’ cap space, another factor looms even larger.
J.J. McCarthy the Biggest Difference for Daniel Jones & Sam Darnold With Vikings
“The result of [Darnold’s success], for the Vikings, is a champagne problem,” Breer wrote. At some point in the offseason, J.J. McCarthy, whom Minnesota took with the 10th pick in April, will be cleared. The staff loved his work before he tore his meniscus in August. So the next domino for the franchise, after the season ends, will be a decision on whether to try to re-sign Darnold or just turn to McCarthy, who’s on an affordable rookie contract.”
McCarthy tore his meniscus during the preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders. He had to undergo two surgeries to address the issue but has not suffered any setbacks.
Kapadia also believes McCarthy is the x-factor for Darnold and Jones’ Vikings futures.
“Presumably, they believe that McCarthy (when he gets healthy) can give them the same level of play that Darnold has given them this season. There’s no guarantee they’ll be right about that, but it’s the calculation that they’ve made,” Kapadia wrote.
“Maybe Darnold continues to improve and plays at an elite level and leads the Vikings to the Super Bowl. Obviously, they would need to reconsider their plan at that point. But right now? There’s no need. Play the season out, and stay clear-eyed about the plan and what’s actually leading to the team’s success.”
Kapadia said the “most likely” outcome in 2025 is Darnold walking for a lucrative contract in free agency and McCarthy assuming his place as QB1.
