The original hope for the Minnesota Vikings‘ season was for Sam Darnold to guide them through a tough start to their schedule and ultimately pass the reins to rookie J.J. McCarthy in what looked like a rebuilding year.
But plans have changed.
McCarthy is on the mend from meniscus surgery and Darnold has played exceptionally, leading the Vikings to a 5-2 start to the season. He’s averaged 230 passing yards per game and thrown 14 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Darnold has the fourth-highest passer rating (107.2) and has also raised his QBR (58.8) in recent weeks, currently ranked 13th.
Minnesota has an easier slate of opponents ahead, and if Darnold can continue to develop, he could make a case to stay in Minnesota beyond the terms of his one-year, $10 million contract.
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer addressed the Vikings’ future at quarterback with McCarthy re-joining the team on the sidelines.
Breer said that Kevin O’Connell has addressed the “elephant in the room,” telling Darnold to stay the course. If he does that, he could present the Vikings with a “good problem down the line.”
“He’s been consistent, and proven to be a good fit for the Vikings’ offense,” Breer wrote on October 28. “As for what that means going forward, Kevin O’Connell has addressed the elephant in the room, and told Darnold to worry about having a good day, a good practice, a good game. After that, they’d all address what would be a very good problem down the line.”
How Far Vikings Go Will Define Sam Darnold’s Future
The easiest timeline to argue for a Darnold extension would be the Vikings hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. After winning five straight games to open the season, that seemed plausible.
Back-to-back losses to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams have exposed some cracks in the Vikings’ makeup. It hasn’t primarily fallen on Darnold; instead, it has been the more defense’s struggles.
However, Darnold hasn’t made up for the defense’s shortcomings — a trait synonymous with great quarterbacks.
The Vikings hope they have that in McCarthy and can capitalize on the roster-building benefits of his affordable rookie deal.
But if Darnold can deliver more winning plays and a deep playoff run, Minnesota could settle on re-signing Darnold knowing they have a proven contender with the veteran quarterback.
Vikings’ Plans Tilt Toward McCarthy as QB of the Future
Minnesota surprised the NFL with the help of numerous veteran additions on defense made in the 2024 offseason. They managed to fortify the defense despite eating $68 million in dead cap charges (primarily from parting ways with Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter).
Next offseason, the Vikings have the fifth-most effective cap space ($63.4 million) to spend. A Darnold extension would cut into that spending, but it can be structured to allow some relief in the coming years.
Darnold’s past resume puts his prospects of a new contract somewhere in the ballpark of Baker Mayfield‘s $33.3 million-a-year deal. That’s not a roster-breaking contract to support, even with the Vikings offering Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson record-breaking deals at their positions.
However, the plan has been to build around a rookie quarterback who could develop with a talented supporting cast and eventually elevate his playmakers.
The Vikings wouldn’t have drafted McCarthy 10th overall if they didn’t have that long-term vision of him.
