Sam Darnold is going to cash in next offseason. Where that will be is one of 2025’s greatest NFL quandaries. But Darnold has played well enough to earn a lucrative contract even if it is not with the Minnesota Vikings.
They have rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy and signed former first-rounder Daniel Jones.
Still, Fox Sports’ Jordan Schultz said he expects Darnold to land a deal similar to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield, a former first-round pick who flamed out with his first team and spent time with two others – including as Darnold’s teammate on the Carolina Panthers – signed a three-year, $100 contract during the 2024 offseason.
“I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for Minnesota to retain him because of the year he’s had,” Shultz told Colin Cowherd on “The Herd” on December 5. “In my opinion, he’s probably gonna Garner somewhere along the lines of what Baker Mayfield got, which is probably fair considering his age, he’s still pretty young and what he’s shown on tape this year.”
“It’s also important that he’s worked with Kevin O’Connell, whose system has been mirrored a lot across the league,” Schultz said. “You can plug and play Sam right away. He’s a smart guy, he gets it.”
Darnold signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Vikings in free agency.
“I think it’s very realistic as well, even if they win the division, that Sam would walk,” Schultz told Cowherd.
Mayfield completed 64.3% of his passes for 4044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 picks, earning his first Pro Bowl and 2023 Most Improved Player. Darnold is on track to throw for more yards and touchdowns with a better completion percentage despite throwing interceptions more often.
Vikings QB Change Expected During Offseason
That the Vikings would supplant Darnold with McCarthy is not surprising. That was the intended plan at some point during this season or, if Darnold returned, the next.
“The assumption here is that Darnold has played well enough to earn an opportunity greater than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgery to presumably claim the starting job,” The Athletic’s Mike Sando wrote on December 5.
The surprise is Darnold’s breakout with the Vikings in his seventh NFL season.
He has already thrown a career-high 23 touchdowns. He is also tracking to set new personal bests in passing yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. His game is not without its warts, though.
Darnold is also on track for a career-high sack rate as a full-time starter, per Pro Football Reference, and is tied for the fourth-most interceptions with 10.
Even if McCarthy is not ready, the Vikings got a head start on finding Darnold’s replacement.
“Jones could fill the Darnold role for the Vikings next season if Darnold finds a better opportunity elsewhere,” Sando wrote. “He could also test the market, although additional time with O’Connell in Minnesota could be good for his career longer term.”
Daniel Jones Could Be Sam Darnold 2.0 for Vikings
The Vikings are optimistic McCarthy will be ready for the start of the 2024 season. But if he is not and they have to turn to Jones to at least begin the season, fans can take solace in knowing he has better numbers than Darnold had coming into this season.
Darnold, who played four fewer games in his first six seasons than Jones, owns a slightly better win percentage. But that is more of a team metric than purely a QB-related stat.
Darnold has a 2-1 record against Jones and a 0.2-yard edge per passing attempt.
Jones leads in most other comparisons, though, including completion percentage, passer rating, and interceptions. Jones would also step into the role with a greater understanding of O’Connell’s system than Darnold. The latter learned a variation with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023.
“Daniel Jones went there, as I reported, in large part because of his relationship dating back to the predraft process with KOC. So that relationship is there,” Schultz said. “Then you allow Jones and McCarthy to fight it out for the No. 1 job next fall. But I think both of those guys – McCarthy and Jones – would be a really good 1-2 punch.
“At the very least, you’d have a young quarterback under a cheap deal who you believe in, you drafted in the first round, and then Jones, who also would be inexpensive.”
