Vikings’ Sam Darnold Predicted to Outdo Award-Winning QB With Next Contract

The Minnesota Vikings can win the NFC North if they win out, which would be another feather in free-agent-to-be Sam Darnold’s cap.

Darnold’s future remains a source of intrigue around the league.

Many expect a high price point, though there is some debate whether or not the Vikings should keep him despite having rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy in tow and signing former No. 6 overall pick Daniel Jones in free agency.

The Athletic’s Jeff Howe believes Darnold’s next deal will fall between what Kirk Cousins got from the Atlanta Falcons and what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers paid Baker Mayfield.

“I think Darnold will get something in the middle of Kirk Cousins’ four-year, $180 million deal and Baker Mayfield’s three-year, $100 million pact,” Howe wrote on December 14. “ It would help his case if Sean McVay disciples Zac Robinson or Liam Coen got head-coaching jobs, considering Darnold’s success with Kevin O’Connell.”

Through Thursday Night Football in Week 15, Darnold ranked sixth in passing yards, fourth in touchdown passes, and third in passer rating, per Pro Football Reference.

He signed a one-year, $10 million contract in free agency during the 2024 offseason.

Coen is Mafield’s offensive coordinator. Notably, Dave Canales, now head coach of the Carolina Panthers, was Mayfield’s OC during his 2023 Most Improved Player-winning campaign. Mayfield earned a Pro Bowl nod that season before getting his big deal.

Mayfield has been even better this season. Coen’s name has been linked to the Chicago Bears HC vacancy, as has Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But the Bears do not need a QB.

Coen took over to O’Connell in LA when the latter came to Minnesota.

Robinson is Cousins’ play-caller in Atlanta with the Falcons. He and Coen both preceded O’Connell on McVay’s staff. Robinson was the last of the three to leave LA and is a less experienced play-caller than Coen.

Panel Split on Vikings’ Best Path Forward With Sam Darnold

Howe’s take on what the Vikings should do was split, though he ultimately settled on letting Darnold walk in free agency in favor of McCarthy.

“While I think there’s a valid argument for keeping Darnold and the team’s championship aspirations intact, it wouldn’t be terrific asset management to bury McCarthy for another couple of years. I also think O’Connell has done more than enough with his quarterbacks to believe there will be a smooth transition with McCarthy next season.”

McCarthy tore his meniscus in the Vikings’ preseason opener in August and had to undergo a second surgery in November. Per Fox Sports’ Jordan Schultz on “The Herd” on December 5, McCarthy is ahead of schedule in his recovery.

McCarthy has also been optimistic about his progress.

However, he has still missed out on an entire season of on-field work. And he entered the league as an unpolished prospect despite his experience in a pro-style offense.

Howe’s fellow contributors Zak Keefer and Mike Sando were also split.

“If I’m Minnesota, I’m working to keep Darnold. He’s just 27, remember, and the Vikings are playing about as well as any team in the league not named the Lions. Why not give him a chance to stay? To keep chasing a championship?” Keefer wrote. “There’s no guarantee McCarthy becomes The Guy, and rushing him into the lineup with a team that’s clearly ready to compete for a Super Bowl could backfire tremendously.”

Keefer acknowledged that Darnold would not “come cheap.” Keefer said he would not be surprised to see a quarterback-starved team offer “north of $35 million” annually for Darold. He added teams could view Darnold as a “better bet” than a rookie from the incoming class.

Sando pushed back on the idea that Darnold is playing MVP-caliber football. He noted the QB’s 14th-place ranking in EPA per pass play and the Vikings’ offense falling in a similar range.

Sando estimates Darnold has not swayed the Vikings, also forecasting a $35 million-ish salary.

“I’m not expecting the Vikings to come off their plan to ride with McCarthy in the future unless Darnold leads a deep playoff push,” Sando wrote. “Once Darnold hits the market, he should have multiple suitors and could command in the $35 million range annually. We do need to see how this season finishes, though.”

Vikings Have Non-QB Roster Needs

The Vikings should have plenty of cap space to extend or re-sign Darnold in the offseason. But there is no guarantee he would not be enticed by another team, with length of the deal a potential swing factor.

Over The Cap projects them to have $76.4 million in available space. However, the Vikings could also see plenty of turnover at other positions on the roster. Most notable among them are cornerback, guard, and running back.

All three of the Vikings’ top corners will be free agents after the season.

The same is true for starting running back Aaron Jones. And the Vikings benched Week 1 starter Ed Ingram for Dalton Risner, another pending free agent.

Darnold will count $5 million against the Vikings’ cap space. That is due to void years on the back of his contract. The charge is an incentive to explore bringing him back. Otherwise, they could carry dead money for a QB for the second straight season, albeit at a smaller amount.