What are the Lightning going to miss with Oliver Bjorkstrand not available in Round 1

On Saturday, the Tampa Bay Lightning made it official as Coach Jon Cooper confirmed that Oliver Bjorkstrand will miss their opening series against the Florida Panthers. The 30-year-old forward has been out since April 11, and was originally ruled out “week-to-week” so it’s not a total shock that he won’t be back. Still, it’s a bit of a blow to the Lightning’s offense as they will now have to rely a little bit more on a couple of rookies as they take on the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Bjorkstrand was acquired at the trade deadline with the hopes that he could provide some depth scoring at 5v5 as well as on the power play where he could add a much-needed right-handed shot to a unit that skews a little left at times. As often happens in the sport of hockey, the best laid plans sometimes have to be adjusted. After scoring a game-winning goal in his first game as a member of the Lightning, Bjorkstrand went through a bit of a scoring drought, not finding the back of the net for the next nine games.

As is usual with the Lightning’s deadline acquisitions, it took him some time to adjust to the system, and over the last eight games prior to his injury he recorded four goals, including his first power play tally in a Tampa Bay uniform. Instead of helping out on the second line, he settled into a solid third-line role (with a cast of rotating characters) giving the Bolts a little depth in the middle six.

While the counting stats (5 goals, 4 assists in 18 games) isn’t quite at the pace the Lightning were expecting when they picked him up, there were some little things he was doing that helped make the Lightning a better team. He has the ability to get the puck into the offensive zone, which is key to getting the offense going for the third line. If he can get the puck in the zone, that line can start churning out scoring chances.

Second, his shot creates a lot of rebounds. He has a quick release and the puck handcuffs goaltenders, which leads to a bit of chaos in front of the crease. Rebounds lead to dirty, greasy goals, the type you see a lot more of in the playoffs. He’s also been strong on the forecheck, making life difficult for opponents trying to exit the zone with possession.

He also likes to shoot from dangerous spots on the ice, something other Lightning forwards sometimes forget to do.

It hasn’t been all sunshine and lollipops during his 18-game stint so far. Part of his appeal to the Bolts was his defensive abilities, which haven’t quite translated to the East Coast just yet. Things were improving, though. In four of his last five games, the Lightning had an expected goals percentage of at least 59.50% when he was on the ice at 5v5. In his last 12 appearances with the Lightning he was on the ice for only one even-strength goal against. Meanwhile, the Bolts scored eight times with him on the ice during that stretch.

Based on their first practice, it looks like the Lightning are going to try and replace that production with both rookies, Gage Goncalves and Conor Geekie, flanking Nick Paul on the third line. Yanni Gourde skated on the first line while Jake Guentzel was alongside Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. It’s the rotation we’ve seen over the last few games to fairly decent results.

The Nick N’ Kids Line has been together for about 35 minutes this season, with the bulk of that time coming over the last three games. They’ve pretty much played their opponents level (xGF% 49.72%) while the Cirelli line (with Jake) is at a dominating 81.94% xGF. The top line hasn’t faltered with Gourde on it as they are at a 58.09% xGF and have generated four goals while allowing just two in roughly 43 minutes of ice time.

Chances are we’ll see an 11/7 rotation to begin things against Florida. Would that be different if Bjorkstrand was healthy? There is a good chance that, at least in Amalie Arena, Coach Cooper would roll four full lines, moving Geekie or Goncalves down to the fourth line to give them a little offensive pop.

Maybe it isn’t what the Lightning are missing, but what Bjorkstrand’s absence adds. It adds another “if” into the equation. The team that has the fewest “ifs” is usually the one that wins a series. The Bolts just added a big if. A third line of Paul, Bjorkstrand, and Goncalves gave the Lightning depth, now they’ll have to see if that still holds true with the two rookies on the line. If they can keep pace and at least keep things even while they’re on the ice, it’ll give the Lightning a solid chance of exacting their revenge against the Panthers. They don’t necessarily have to score a ton of goals, but they have to, at the very least, keep as much play out of their own zone as possible.

The Lightning have one less arrow in their quiver to use against the Panthers. The good news is that they spent most of the season without Bjorkstrand in their line-up, and still racked up plenty of points. They’ll just have to find a way to win without him until he is healthy. They’re still a really good team, and the opportunity will be open for Goncalves and Geekie to step up and gain some useful experience that could be useful down the road.