What the Lightning miss without Nick Paul in the line-up

As of the time of this publication, the status of Nick Paul is uncertain. He missed Thursday’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets with an undisclosed lower-body injury, and was set to be reevaluated when the team returned to Tampa. They had a scheduled off-day on Friday, so it’s likely there won’t be any further information revealed until after Saturday’s morning skate prior to their game against the Dallas Stars. There is a chance that the 29-year-old forward is out indefinitely, so what does that mean for the Tampa Bay Lightning?

A lot will depend on the severity of the injury. A quick review of his last shift against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday, which came in the second period, show him grab at his left leg along the boards and then slowly make his way off of the ice, clearly favoring that leg. There was no contact on the play, so it is difficult to speculate exactly what happened. As usual with the Lightning, they will be tight-lipped about what the exact nature of the injury is, especially if it minor.

If it is a minor issue and he’s out day-to-day like Brayden Point was earlier in the month, chances are they won’t do anything. They have 12 healthy forwards on the roster right now and don’t technically need to recall anyone. If that is the case, chances are they may go with the 11/7 rotation a little more often (they did so twice with Point out of the line-up) and mix up their lines with Gage Goncalves and Cameron Atkinson swapping in and out of the rotation. If they do go 12/6, then Atkinson might get a shot on the second line after a strong offensive game in Columbus.

If Paul is out for a longer stretch of play, things become a bit more concerning. At the moment, they really don’t have a player in the organization that is ready to replace what he brings to the line-up. Through 17 games, Paul is 7th in scoring on the team with 5 goals and 8 assists. All five of those goals have come at even strength and include an overtime winner. He’s added one assist on the power play as well.

More critical to the team’s success is his ability to move up and down the line-up. For much of the year he was centering the third line, but he did see some action on the second line, in both the center and on the wing, when Point was out. He plays on both special teams units, although his minutes have diminished on both units this season. On a team where depth is an issue, losing one of their key middle-six forwards would be a tough pill to swallow.

While he has been recording goals at a higher rate than normal this year, he is outperforming his underlying stats a bit. Five goals on a 2.65 iXG is a little high for a player of Paul’s caliber, and he was likely due for a regression at some point. However, he has been above average defensively, something that Lightning forward’s have struggled with over the past couple of years. His absence against Columbus isn’t the reason they conceded 7 goals, but it didn’t help that he wasn’t there.

With him in the line-up, Coach Cooper was able to put him up on the second line with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli, which made them a really solid two-way line that could provide offense while matching up against some of the opponent’s better players. It also allowed the Kid Line (Goncalves, Conor Geekie, and Mitchell Chaffee) to be spotted in favorable situations and generate some offense. With Paul, out things are jumbled up a bit and both the second and third lines are a little weaker.

If he’s out for an extended period of time, the Bolts would likely recall Conor Sheary, who has 5 points (2 goals, 3 assists) in 8 games after being loaned to the Syracuse Crunch earlier this month. At the time of the assignment, Coach Cooper mentioned that it was a long season and that Sheary would likely be in a position to help the team again. If he is recalled, and can bring the level of production he had in the AHL back to the NHL, that would help tide things over until Paul is able to play again.

The Bolts might also opt to take a look at some of their younger players like Dylan Duke or Max Groshev, the two candidates most likely to be recalled if it’s not Sheary.

Hopefully, this is an exercise in futility and Nick Paul is back on the ice this weekend. If not, well, it could be an interesting few weeks for the Tampa Bay Lightning.