In order for the Buccaneers to remain on top of the NFC South the new offensive scheme, under Liam Coen, is going to need to improve in some key places. Especially with the perceived improvements in the division. This year the Buccaneers have added through the draft and kept key players in place. So it begs the question, after mini camps and two weeks of preseason, do they look poised to do so?
The 2023 Numbers
As we look closely to the Buccaneers season last year they finished 20th in points for and 23rd in total yards. This poor overall showing resulted in a nine and eight record, securing the NFC South, and a playoff birth. But it wasn’t enough. Digging deeper we start to see issues that we all observed over the season. The inability to get the run game established, last in the league in yards and 29th in touchdowns, dragged this offense down. It also created an over reliance on the passing game that defensive coordinators could hone in on. This stifled the offense in key situations and partial influenced games where we lost by seven or fewer points. That’s four out of the eight losses. Just imagine if the Buccaneers were a 13-4 team last season. So, this year, the game plan has been to rectify that issue.
A Needed Jump In Numbers
If we go off of last seasons numbers the Buccaneers had 1509 yards in rushing on 439 attempts. To give you an idea of how far the jump could and needs to be , the Buccaneers need to boost the 2024 total by 365 yards to be around the middle of the league. Now is this obtainable? For context 365 yards a season is a 21.4 yards a game. Using the old adage of how do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time this is what that looks like. Given the Buccaneers ran the ball 439 time last season at 3.4 yards per carry to achieve the desired result, with last years usage, the running backs need to average 4.26 yards per carry. That’s an increase of .86 yards per carry. That’s a pretty big jump without more carries. Obviously if the run game improves they will run the ball more often. Twenty to thirty more carries will put them in the middle of the NLF in attempts. So for example if they improve to 4 yards a carry and have 469 carries they will be theoretically in the middle of the league yardage wise this season.
Is The Needed Jump Feasible/Obtainable?
Given reporting from the preseason Gram Barton looks the part of starting center. Assuming his PFF overall grade of 81.25 from the first two preseason games carries over its a great start to fixing the numbers. We also saw his strong performance in run blocking with highlights of him escorting running backs into the end zone as he mauled defensive lineman. His addition to the team and ability to adjust to the NFL quickly could very well infuse the interior offensive line with what is needed to get the run game jump started and possibly accomplished. More clues are present this preseason too. Last preseason the running backs collectively averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Close to the season average that resulted. In week one of the 2024 preseason they averaged 4.3 yards a carry and in the second game they averaged 4.8 yards a carry. If these numbers can translate over to the regular season the team should improve drastically in the run game. So Buccaneers fans, get ready to see an improved offense this year!
Final Thought
The run game will become a pivotal improvement area this season. If it matures as expected then the passing game opens up more as well. In theory if the run game can be in the middle of the league this season and the passing game opens up the Buccaneers could find themselves knocking on the door to a top ten offense. Again, looking at last seasons numbers and being optimistic, if the team reaches that 365 yard jump in the run game they only need a 226 yard increase in passing from last years numbers to sniff top ten in yardage. That’s only 13 yards a game. At best two pass completions more. Players themselves are saying the new offense is better, has a lot more movement to mismatch, and is harder to decipher for defenses. So answering the initial question, yes they look like they will be poised to be a stronger running team and overall offense! I feel the Buccaneers offense is being slept on right now.
