Who Is Going to Get Playoff Starts for the Yankees This Year?

It’s full force ahead to October for the New York Yankees after clinching their place in 2024 MLB postseason on Wednesday.

And with a four-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East division title with just eight games remaining, the Yankees are likely looking at bye to the ALDS at this point.

But even though New York is guaranteed playoff baseball this year, there’s still a lot for GM Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone and co to figure out when it comes to constructing their postseason roster.

And one of the biggest questions surrounding the Yankees at the moment is who will make starts for them in October?

While some names seem all but guaranteed to get the ball in the early going, the uncertainty begins to form when accounting for starts beyond the opening two games of a series.

So let’s look into some of the options to round out the rotation in the Bronx and what sort of form teach option is entering the postseason with.

All stats used within this article are from prior to games on Sept. 21.

Cole and Rodón are Rotation Locks

It’s hard to argue against having the $324 million man in Gerrit Cole and the $162 million dollar man in Carlos Rodón in the rotation, as these scenarios are you pay such high sums for.

But it’s not as if they don’t deserve their spots are just there due to financial commitments. The duo have been great in the second half of the season so far.

Since the All-Star break Cole has thrown 65.0 innings across 11 starts to the tune of a 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a .212 AVG against while leading the Yankees in fWAR in this span at 1.6, according to FanGraphs. And Cole isn’t far removed from a stellar month of August where tossed a 1.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in five starts.

Rodón has been just as good as his Cole post all-star break. In 56.2 innings across 10 starts he’s sporting a second half 3.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a .206 AVG against and the second best fWAR in New York in that span at 1.0. Rodón is playing some of the best baseball he has all season, as in three September starts he’s posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

Between Cole and Rodón, the Yankees have Games 1 and 2 covered. Now comes the time to figure out who gets the ball next.

It’s a Four-Man Race for The Final Two Spots

The Yankees have enough capable starting arms to make this a difficult decision on who fills out a postseason rotation.

They could look to their experienced options in Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman. Or they could dip into their less proven postseason talent in Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt.

And Boone has already started to play around with his rotation as he looks to October, with both Cortes and Stroman already making an extended bullpen outing each in recent weeks.

Nestor Cortes

Looking at each individual pitcher it’s hard to make the case of not including Cortes in this staff. Along with the prior postseason experience with New York that he brings to the table, Cortes has put together a consistently solid year in 2024.

Other than a rough outing in his lone start in March and then a difficult month of July, Cortes has managed to post sub-4.00 ERA totals in every other month.

And Cortes is coming into the postseason in his best form of 2024 with sub-3.00 ERAs in both August and September.

Nestor Cortes Monthly Statistics 2024, prior to games on Sept. 21

Marcus Stroman

What Stroman has been best known for throughout his career is that fearless mentality and winning chip on his shoulder that’s served him well throughout his 10-year big league career.

But this season has been a bit of a struggle for the him following a 2023 season in Chicago where he made his second career all-star appearance. In 2024 he’s sporting a 4.04 ERA, with a 1.43 WHIP and .264 AVG against.

The second half of the season has been an even greater struggle for Stroman. Since the all-star break he’s posted a 5.40 ERA, with a 1.68 WHIP, and a .330 AVG against, as hitters have feasted off him of late.

In fact it stems longer than just the second half for Stroman, as he now has four straight months where he’s posted a monthly ERA above 4.50.

Marcus Stroman Monthly Statistics 2024 (June to September), prior to games on Sept. 21

Luis Gil

Gil was one of the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year frontrunners in the early going and has since reclaimed some of that form late in the season as he’s been tossing a masterclass of a month in September.

In three starts this month Gil has posted a shimmering 1.13 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP across 16.0 innings of work.

And tack that on to an overall impressive second half as the Yankees’ rookie has looked very poised. In eight post all-star break starts, Gil has thrown to a 3.05 ERA while only surrendering a .215 AVG against.

The one knock against him is his injury history. Having already gone under the knife with Tommy John surgery and being so young in his major league career, an innings limit has often been thrown around when talking about Gil, with the hope it would prolong his excellence in the future.

But the fact it’s this late in the year and Boone continues to throw him out for 5.0+ innings every start in recent weeks, maybe the Yankees feel he’s ready to handle his current workload rather than shutting him down.

Clarke Schmidt

After missing so much of this season to injury, despite his hot start to the year, with a 2.52 and 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts, I don’t think it’s inaccurate to think that Schmidt probably wasn’t top of mind when planning out postseason starts before his return.

But since he returned on Sept. 7, Schmidt has dazzled this month as he’s sporting a 1.76 ERA in 15.1 innings across three starts.

In a recent article, I discussed how the Yankees’ postseason bullpen could look, and in it I included both Gil and Schmidt as members of the ‘pen citing their lack of experience when compared to Cortes and Stroman but still having quality enough stats in 2024 to include them in the postseason roster in some capacity.

But with how strong Schmidt has been this month, the Yankees may need to continue to ride his hot hand.

So Who Should Start?

As we’ve already established there should be no question on who gets the ball in Game 1 and Game 2. Cole and Rodón were paid the big bucks for these exact moments, and both are heading into the postseason in good form.

So here’s how I believe the postseason rotation should play out in the Bronx.

Potential 2024 Yankees Postseason Starting Rotation

I think Stroman has to be the odd man out. His overall down year and particularly poor second half form should be enough to exclude him entirely from the postseason roster.

This left Cortes, Gil and Schmidt left to fill out the final two spots.

With the August that he just had and the impressive month of September he’s currently having, plus his prior knowledge of the postseason, I think Nestor Cortes has earned his spot in this four-man rotation. The fact he also adds a second left-handed option to balance out the mix of lefties and righties in the rotation is a certainly a plus in his favor.

And I want to be clear, I think both Gil and Schmidt will make the postseason roster and have roles to play in October. I see the odd man out between the two being a swing man and eating up potentially 3.0+ innings out of the ‘pen.

This meant the odd man out in this case, adopting that swing man role, would be Schmidt, meaning Gil would be my fourth starter.

With both Gil and Schmidt having such strong months of September and second halves overall it came down the details.

In this case I looked at how hitters were hitting each of their pitches this season and Gil’s AVG against each pitch within his arsenal was just too strong to overlook.

This season, opponents are hitting under .200 against all three of Gil’s deliveries, with xBAs in the low .200’s for each of them as well, according to Baseball Savant.

Opponents’ Results against Luis Gil’s Pitches in 2024

Despite having a pitch mix of four offerings used over 15% of the time at his disposal, Schmidt is a little more hit and miss with how opponents are seeing his stuff this season.

Opponents’ Results against Clarke Schmidt’s Pitches in 2024

Overall the Yankees starting pitching looks to be in good shape heading into October. Their two stars in Cole and Rodón have produced strong second halves. And the next three best names in Cortes, Gil and Schmidt have looked excellent down the stretch.

With over a week left to be played in the regular season, there’s still time for things to shift and plans to change, but as it stands right now, there’s reason for optimism in the Bronx when it comes to their starting rotation heading into October.