Week 10 didn't shake out too well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Sitting down two games – minus the tiebreaker – to the Falcons in the NFC South, the Buccaneers could have inched one step closer to the division crown with a win over the San Francisco 49ers, but after watching Atlanta take an L to the New Orleans Saints, they had to watch Jake Moody hit a walk-off field goal to end any hopes of an overtime win.
Are the Buccaneers cooked? Is their defense too bad and their offense too injured to win what many consider to be the worst division in football? Or do they have enough fight left in the tank, plus some statistical advantages on the schedule or in the numbers, that could keep them in the running as the South's plucky underdog challengers? Well, while it won't be easy, there are a number of factors that could give the Buccaneers a puncher's chance to win the division outright or at least make it into the playoffs as a wildcard, especially if they can get a few lucky breaks along the way.
1. The Buccaneers have an easier schedule than the Falcons
If the Buccaneers are going to win the NFL South, they're going to have to *spoiler alert* win more games than the Falcons.
Unfortunately, the two teams have already played twice, and the final score has shaken out in Atlanta's way both times. On paper, that's bad, but the Buccaneers still have seven more games in 2024 to play after the bye, and as things presently stand, only one of those teams, the Los Angeles Chargers, have a winning record.
First come the New York Giants, who have lost their last their last five games and have scored the fewest points of any team in the NFL. Then comes the first of two games against the Panthers, who did just beat the Panthers but might not win another game the rest of the season. Throw in a game against the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who already traded away their best offensive player, a hapless Dallas Cowboys team that can't even get a W against a celestial body and a game against a Saints team that already fired their head coach, and it's very possible the Buccaneers could close out the season with an improved record of 10-7 record, just like Jason Licht planned it out.
The Falcons, by contrast, have just three opponents on their schedule with losing records, with the plucky Denver Broncos sitting at 5-5, the Chargers at 6-3, the Vikings at 7-2, and the Washington Commanders at 7-3. If they win out, then yeah, the Falcons have the NFC South, but if they go 4-5 or even 3-6 over the next seven games, the opportunity is there for the Buccaneers to win the division or at least compete for one of the NFC's three wildcard spots.
2. Mike Evens can jumpstart the passing game
Over the past few weeks, the Buccaneers' passing offense has become increasingly less effective, going from a team that was able to handily defeat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 to a squad that barely put up 200 total yards against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10.
Discussing the Buccaneers' issues through the air with reporters before leaving for the bye, Bowles broke down what's going wrong with his offense, which is no one thing in particular but instead “a little bit of everything.”
“It's a little bit of everything,” Bowles told reporters. “Any time you lose two All-Pros and you have a guy that's playing for the first time, really – ‘Shep' (Sterling Shepard) has played in this league but it's his first time in the system – ‘J-Mac' (Jalen McMillan) is a rookie, Trey [Palmer] is [in his] second year, you have Ryan [Miller] coming off the practice squad, so there [are] going to be some chemistry things. There is going to be a change in the offense, and it's going to look a bit different. We've been throwing the ball pretty [well] lately and had some success – yesterday wasn't the case. They did a good job slanting down.”
Fortunately, Bowles did note that there could be reinforcements coming just over the hill after all, as Mike Evans is slowly but surely working his way back to the NFL field and could return as soon as Week 12.
“Again, I'll have to see where he is next week,” Bowles told reporters. “He's getting better and better. With the week off, hopefully, he'll be able to do something next week.”
While Evans was having a bit of a down year by his own standards to start off the year, averaging just 12.9 yards per reception versus his career average of 15.2, the pride of Texas A&M has never had a season where he'd had less than 1,000 and probably doesn't want to start that trend now in his 11th NFL season. With 665 yards needed to hit that mark over just seven games, it's going to be hard but not impossible for Evans to hit that mark, but it's safe to say when he returns, he's going to be extra motivated to produce.
3. Todd Bowles' defense has to turn around
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Through ten weeks of action, the Buccaneers' offense has largely been successful in 2024 since transitioning from Dave Canales to Liam Coen as offensive coordinator.
They rank sixth in passing yards at 2,362, have the most passing touchdowns in the NFL, and have been largely successful on the ground, too, ranking 11th in rushing yards and fifth in rushing yards-per-attempt with an attack headlined by rookie Oregon fourth-rounder Bucky Irving.
The Buccaneers' defense, by contrast, has been decidedly less effective, which is odd, considering they still have Bowles calling the shot. Ranking 31st in passing yards allowed, 30th in passing touchdowns allowed, 16th in rushing yards allowed, and 27th in yards allowed per rush, it's no wonder the Buccaneers have a point diferential of just +13 despite having one of the top passing offenses in the NFL.
But what gives? Sure, the Buccaneers have lost a number of players to free agency over the past few years, with Carlton Davis, Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and a dozen others saying goodbye to the franchise for one reason or another, but they still have a quality core that has been very successful for years, with players like Vita Vea, to Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. all still playing at a high level.
Maybe some of it has to do with the Buccaneers facing tough opponents to start out the season, with just one opponent of their first ten currently sitting with a losing record. But it might also just come down to the growing pains of fielding a successful NFL defense, with players taking on new roles, different roles, or just getting a little bit older.
While the Buccaneers have lost their last four games, all but one of them came by one score or less, and that could easily shake the other way moving forward if Bowles' defense can make some adjustments over the bye week. Considering the Buccaneers have had a positive Defensive SRS under Bowles over the past four years, it's worth hoping that he will right the ship and bring that number up to five by season's end.
