Why Lightning must keep Anthony Cirelli before no-trade clause begins

Anthony Cirelli holds a special place in the Lightning organization.

Anthony Cirelli is a proven winner, which explains why the Tampa Bay Lightning gave him an eight-year contract extension before the 2022-23 season. He played the remainder of his three-year deal in that season, and then the new extension kicked in for 2023-24. Cirelli is in the second year of his contract, with a new no-trade clause kicking in this offseason. The question for Julien Brisebois and the Lightning is whether they should move Cirelli before that kicks in.

Most hockey players would do anything to achieve the success Cirelli has before turning 28. It started when he debuted with the Oshawa Generals and scored the Memorial Cup-winning goal in overtime in his draft year. The Lightning drafted him in the third round, not necessarily realizing they had just selected a critical piece of soon-to-be back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships.

Cirelli was the third-line center on two consecutive cup championship-winning teams in 2020 and 2021. On a team with no shortage of star power, Cirelli was the unsung hero Jon Cooper leaned on. There's an argument that the Lightning wouldn't have won those two cups without Cirelli and his shutdown of opposing teams' best lines.

Lightning will love Anthony Cirelli's value in a few years

Cirelli signed a deal that looks like a steal before the 2022-23 season. The contract's first two years didn't feature no-trade protection, but the next two years have a no-trade clause. Starting on June 15, 2027, the player submits a 16-team trade list. The Lightning will have no interest in trading Cirelli over the next two seasons when the trade protection is there, and the new clause starting in 2027 will offer them some flexibility.

By the time the new parameters kick in, Cirelli will be one of the best-value contracts in the NHL. Cirelli won't be able to sign a new contract until after the 2030 season when the salary cap could be at unimaginable levels. If you look at the projected rise over the next few seasons, it's safe to predict it'll be even higher by that 2031-32 season. Then, Cirelli and his agent will likely regret taking the long-term deal.

Cirelli could have gotten a massive raise if he had demanded a bridge contract on his last deal. The contract he signed on July 13, 2022, was just a $2.4 million annual raise over his previous deal, which was minuscule when considering how Cirelli's role changed after the Steven Stamkos trade.

Cirelli was formerly more of a depth center for the Lightning; now, he is one of the league's best second-line centers and an even more important player for the Lightning. He parlayed his success into a spot on Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off, which puts him as one of the top-13 forwards from Canada. He will also likely return with Team Canada at next year's Olympics.

Cirelli is Jon Cooper's security blanket

The 4 Nations Face-off showed us something about Cirelli that the casual hockey fan might not realize. He isn't as well-known globally because of his lower point totals, but he is an essential piece of a winning hockey team. Look no further than how much Jon Cooper trusts him, leaning on him as one of his most-used forwards in crucial moments with Canada. Canadian hockey fans often screamed at the television, wondering why Cirelli, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel were out on the ice again.

Cirelli's ice-time dwindled as the tournament wore on, mainly because his pace wasn't as good as some of the world's best. It takes a special player to maintain the speed of those tournament games, but that doesn't mean much to the Lightning. The NHL doesn't play at that pace as consistently as even the playoffs have lulls, depending on which players are on the ice. Cirelli has shown he can do it before with two Stanley Cups, and he'll continue to be a key piece on Cooper's teams.

Cirelli's usage in the Lightning's back-to-back cup wins tells you everything you need to know. It's rare to see a forward play over 20 minutes per game, but Cirelli averaged 20:08 in the team's first victory in 2020. He had just nine points in 25 games but often played against the other teams' best players. The number dropped to 16:57 the following year, but the step back in responsibility on the defensive side helped him increase his point total to 12.

There might be an argument to sell high on Anthony Cirelli and see what the Lightning can get for him. However, if Tampa Bay plans to contend for the duration of Cirelli's contract, it's one they have to keep.