Yes, they are howling in Dallas, thanks to the New Orleans Saints running them out of their own building. Micah Parsons defended the Cowboys defensive coordinator, and Jerry Jones whined about the linebackers. But just because they got under the Cowboys’ collective skin, the blowout win doesn’t prove the Saints are Super Bowl contenders.
Let’s slow that roll real quick. And we’re going to apply the brakes using the foot of Derek Carr.
Saints QB Derek Carr playing over his head
First, this is Derek Carr’s 11th season in the NFL. He put together three straight Pro Bowl performances from 2015-17, but only one in the next six years. There’s a reason that has happened.
As a disclaimer, I wouldn’t recommend future Hall of Famer Tom Brady as your one-stop shop for quarterback critique. Brady may turn into the next Tony Romo, but I think humility goes a long way in becoming a great commentator. I see no humility in Tom Terrific, but … I think he hit the nail squarely on the head with his analysis of Carr. More on that later.
The statistics for Carr this season are other worldly. He has completed 77% of his passes (30 of 39) for 443 yards and five touchdowns. Just to get an idea of how far out of line these numbers are for Carr’s career, let’s break it down. His career high in completion percentage is 70.4, so he’s almost seven points above that number.
But the most freaky stat is his touchdown percentage, which stands at 12.8. His career high of 5.6 came way back in 2015.
Plus, we have to look at his leopard stripes when it comes to his winning percentage. Carr’s career record if 74-87. He’s had three winning seasons in 10 years. And yet some people want to press the “buy” button on his Super Bowl chances in 2024? Come on.
OK, Tom Brady. He spoke kindly, at first, according to foxsports.com.
“I think that gives you a sign of things to come for this New Orleans offense,” Brady said. “Now the question is, can they do that consistently well?”
Saints offense getting it done
Brady also praise play-caller Klint Kubiak, saying the dude is “on fire” right now.
“They mixed personnel, they mixed formations,” Brady said. “They had these challenging motions, and then they got these chunk plays early in the game off the play action.”
But eventually Brady settled into Carr. The NFL world knows what Carr brings to the table. He can make the big plays and the big throws, for sure.
“He made some A-plus throws today down the field, hitting guys in stride,” Brady said. “In this scheme, if you play from ahead, then the defense has to deal with every bootleg, every gimmick play, and then high-percentage passes. It’s very hard to stop.”
But Brady said there are a lot of questions about Carr. And the biggest one, without question, is Carr’s ability to function when he’s under pressure.
“He looks so comfortable in this offense,” Brady said. “One of the knocks on him in his career is throwing the ball under duress. And I think what Kubiak has done a good job of is he’s not allowing these defenses to tee off with their pass rush. So in the last two games, Derek has just been standing back there finding the open guys, and no one’s ever criticized Derek’s arm or arm strength, his ability to get the ball down the field. He’s just got to do it consistently well throughout the entire season. You have games like this. You have games like last week. Can you string together a whole season of that?”
It takes more than two games to paint a picture
And there it is. Yes, the Cowboys should the very team that gives Carr trouble. They should be able to create pressure against any offense, right? Look at what they did to Cleveland. But remember, the Browns fielded a patchwork offensive line in Week 1. Those guys made the Cowboys’ defensive front look like a group of Pro Bowlers.
Now, the Cowboys have talent. They should have been able to get heat on Carr. And here’s one thing we can say about Carr. If the Saints protect him all season the way they did against Dallas, Carr might lead his team to double-digit wins for the first time since the Raiders in 2021.
But honestly that’s the ceiling. This isn’t a 16-1 or 15-2 quarterback. There’s a decade worth of history to prove it. The Saints defense isn’t going to shut everybody down. Even with the good Week 1 effort against the Panthers, the Saints’ defense climbed only one spot to No. 17, according to profootballnetwork.com.
Yes, the Saints will surely rise this week. Maybe they will even be in the Top 10. But tougher days are coming. It’s hard to see the Saints winning games because of this unit. Best said, the Saints’ defense could avoid losing games by playing solid enough for the offense to win.
Now, let’s look at personnel
We’re talking roster now. Let’s say Derek Carr rises above his preseason ranking of No. 21, according to Pro Football Focus. Let’s say, maybe top 15. That’s still not Super Bowl-contender worthy.
How about the skill players? Running back Alvin Kamara destroyed the Cowboys with four touchdowns. But Kamara’s metrics show a player clearly in decline. It’s unlikely he has a game again this season anything near what he produced against the Cowboys.
Sure head coach Dennis Allen will get on the bandwagon, according to abcnews.go.
“I thought he was awesome again,”Allen said. “I felt like he was still an explosive player and I think we’re utilizing him in a way that allows him to be effective.”
Kamara said execution played the key role.
“Just speaking for the offense, when you’re able to go out there and execute, limit the self-inflicted wounds, have explosive plans, like, man, the sky’s the limit,” Kamara said. “It feels good right now, obviously. Y’all know me, I’m not too into the hype. It’s a win but we’ve got to keep moving.”
But Kamara is 29 years old with 1,862 miles worth of career touches. He’s averaging an insane 5.7 yards per carry this season after hovering near four over the last three seasons. And his five touchdowns are half of his TOTAL combined scores over the last two seasons. Yes, a market correction is rolling toward Bayou country and headed straight for Kamara’s doorstep.
What about the receivers? Chris Olave is a top-notch guy, and Rashid Shaheed is a fairly inconsistent home-run threat. There’s not much else to get excited about, including tight ends and receivers out of the backfield since Kamara isn’t the beast he once was in that category.
What about the coaching?
Check out this headline from whodatdish.com: “Dennis Allen is already on the hot seat before Week 1 has even arrived; Least shocking news ever.”
And nytimes.com painted it this way.
“People around the league believe head coach Dennis Allen is opening the season on the hot seat,” Jeff Howe wrote. “The Saints are 16-18 since Allen took over for Sean Payton, so a playoff berth and creating tangible momentum toward 2025 might be necessary for Allen to stay onboard.”
Now after two weeks, we’re supposed to hit the “buy” button on Allen suddenly becoming a coaching genius and leading the Saints to the promised land?
Allen has been criticized so heavily in his first two seasons that it’s hard to imagine he’s suddenly stumbled upon the formula.
So what’s the bottom line? It goes like this. The Saints are clearly ahead of the curve. They’ve gotten off to a tremendous start. There’s no reason for them to avoid pie-in-the-sky dreams. But there is a reason for level heads to prevail.
The Saints have the Eagles at home this week before traveling to play the Falcons in Week 4. Then it’s on the road again to face the two-time-defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Without overamplifiying the Falcons, that three-game stretch will provide all the information needed to assess the Saints’ chances of making serious postseason noise.
If they come out of that stretch with a 4-1 mark, it will be time to look at the Saints as a legitimate playoff threat. That would be defined as a team capable of winning at least one postseason game. Anything beyond that type of finish will have to be seeing-is-believing for the Saints’ fans.
