With veteran superstar Stefon Diggs joining young rising stars Nico Collins and Tank Dell , the Texans now have arguably the best wide receiver trios in the league. That’s great news for Houston fans, but it presents a problem for NFL Fantasy Football managers.
Currently, all three Houston wide receivers are being drafted among the top 30 fantasy WRs. Collins is the WR14 in Half-PPR ADP, with Diggs (WR22) and Dell (WR29) not far behind. Even with a great young quarterback in C.J. Stroud under center, it’s going to be very tough for all three to return value at those prices. History shows that it is near-impossible for a single offense to support three top-36 fantasy receivers.
Unfortunately, of these three talented receivers, Dell looks set to be the odd man out. Collins is an ascending superstar, as evidenced by the monster contract extension he received earlier this spring, and Diggs is going to demand touches. Dell, a third-round draft pick who weighs just 165 pounds, is likely to be forced off the field in three-receiver sets. That will make it nearly impossible for him to return value at his current ADP.
Recent Fantasy History Of Three Receivers On One Team
Given their current ADPs, all three Houston WRs living up to expectations would be unprecedented.
Before we dive into the specifics of this Houston receiver room, let’s take a stroll down memory lane. The last team to have three wide receivers rank inside the top 36, let alone the top 30, in Half-PPR scoring was the 2021 Bengals.
In Joe Burrow’s sophomore season, he threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns. That was enough to support rookie Ja’Marr Chase (WR5), Tee Higgins (WR22), and Tyler Boyd (WR31) as top-36 fantasy receivers. However, Boyd was just the WR37 in points per game, with 9.4.
Let’s take a look at the team with the best third-receiver finish in each of the last four years, including their rates of using 10 or 11 personnel (aka how often three or more receivers were on the field):
|
Best Three-Receiver Groups Each Season Since 2020 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Team |
WR1 (Overall/PPG) |
WR2 (Overall/PPG) |
WR3 (Overall/PPG) |
10/11 Personnel Rate |
|
Seahawks (2023) |
DK Metcalf (WR16/20) |
Tyler Lockett (WR33/43) |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR48/60) |
65% |
|
Bengals (2022) |
Ja’Marr Chase (WR12/5) |
Tee Higgins (WR17/19) |
Tyler Boyd (WR38/43) |
83% |
|
Bengals (2021) |
Ja’Marr Chase (WR5/5) |
Tee Higgins (WR22/13) |
Tyler Boyd (WR31/37) |
77% |
|
Steelers (2020) |
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR18/27) |
Chase Claypool (WR19/29) |
Diontae Johnson (WR22/25) |
73% |
All four teams played 10 or 11 personnel on at least 65% of their snaps. If we ignore the 2023 Seahawks, whose third receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, was just the WR48 overall and WR60 in points per game, each team is above 73%. The 2023 Texans, meanwhile, ran 10 or 11 personnel on just 59% of their plays.
It’s also worth noting the actual results of these prolific trios. The highest PPG finish of any team’s third receiver is Chase Claypool in 2020, who finished as the WR29, which happens to be exactly Dell’s ADP. However, the 2020 Steelers were remarkably balanced, with all three receivers having very similar production and no single receiver ranking in the top 24 in points per game. Fantasy managers are expecting more high-end production from this Texans offense.
Something has to give. If all three Houston receivers live up to their current draft prices, they will easily be the most productive fantasy WR trio of the last five years. That’s possible, but I’m certainly not going to bet on it. If we trust history, at least one of these three receivers will disappoint.
Reasons Dell Could Succeed
Dell is highly drafted for a reason: His rookie year was flat-out awesome.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Dell will be the member of this talented trio to let fantasy managers down. There are good reasons for his ADP to be as high as it is.
In his rookie 2023 season, Dell averaged 14.9 half-PPR points in his eight healthy games. That would have beaten Collins (14.7) and Diggs (13.0), ranking him as the WR8 overall.
Dell’s peripherals are also impressive. He finished the regular season with 2.22 yards per route run and an 83.3 PFF Receiving Grade, which ranked him in the top 16 of 102 qualified receivers.
Even better, despite his small stature, Dell played a true outside receiver role as a rookie. He ran over 70% of his routes from outside the slot and posted a very high ADOT of 14.4 yards.
Meanwhile, Diggs was not his usual self down the stretch of last season. From Week 10 onwards, the former All-Pro averaged just 6.8 half-PPR points per game and posted a 65.6 PFF Receiving Grade. Now over 30 years old and on a new team, there’s a real chance Diggs never returns to the player he once was. There is a very compelling case that Dell is the second-best receiver on this team … at worst.
Why Dell Will Bust
Sitting in two-receiver sets will keep Dell from providing consistent fantasy production.
However, talent isn’t the only thing that matters. You can’t score fantasy points if you aren’t on the field.
Remember when I mentioned that the Texans only used 10 or 11 personnel on 59% of their snaps in 2023? If that number holds, one of Collins, Diggs, and Dell will be on the sideline for over 40% of Houston’s offensive snaps.
Even if we look just at passing plays, the Texans still used two or fewer receivers 27% of the time in 2023. Of course, that number will likely go down in 2024 — with three receivers this good, why wouldn’t Houston use them?
But even if Houston rises from 21st in this metric to the top five, it will still have two or fewer receivers on the field for roughly 20% of passing plays (the Colts ranked fifth in 2023 with three or more receivers on 81% of their pass attempts).
Determining who will be off the field in these situations is key to predicting this stacked trio’s fantasy production, and my money is on Dell. Collins is a true alpha and ranked as a top-three receiver in the league last year in both PFF Grade and yards per route run — he’s not coming off the field. Diggs is an established veteran with a history of making noise when he feels he isn’t given a large enough role. He scored a lot of touchdowns last year, which could result in negative touchdown regression. But would the Texans have traded for him without a plan to keep him happy?
Dell, meanwhile, is just 5’8” and weighs 165 pounds. He graded terribly as a run-blocker as a rookie (50.1 PFF Grade), and an injury ended his season while he was blocking in the red zone.
As fantasy players, we like to think all these things don’t matter. Who cares if Diggs is a diva and if Dell can’t block? Get the best receivers on the field to catch the ball. But that isn’t how the NFL works, and I fear Dell will find himself on the bench annoyingly often in 2024.
With elite talent, a great QB, and deep-threat ability, Dell can certainly still have his share of huge games. But he will likely also have more than his fair share of duds, making him frustrating to roster and a bust at his current ADP.
