Will Joe Burrow Take Another Step Forward, Win MVP Following Historic 2024 Season?

Hope springs eternal in the offseason, which can lead to some inflated expectations. But what are some realistic expectations for the Bengals in 2025? This series will look at various key Bengals and what fans should expect production-wise this season.

If you missed the first couple of articles in the series, make sure you get caught up on expectations for Jermaine Burton and Dylan Fairchild.

Fans and media alike have high expectations for Joe Burrow, and rightfully so. He has been a legitimate MVP candidate in two of his three healthy seasons including leading the league in pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns in 2024. How likely is it that he repeats those numbers again this season? Let’s dive into history.

What Burrow accomplished in 2024 was truly remarkable. Over the last two decades, the only quarterbacks to throw for as many yards and touchdowns as Burrow did are Drew Brees (2011, 2012), Peyton Manning (2013), Patrick Mahomes (2018), and Tom Brady (2021). Even if we expand the search to quarterbacks who threw for at least 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, that had only happened 13 times since 2004 prior to last season. How many quarterbacks that put up strong passing seasons were able to replicate that the following year, though?

Removing the players that were injured the following year and did not play in at least 14 games, we are left with 10 quarterback seasons to analyze. The table below shows the production from each of those quarterbacks the season AFTER throwing for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns:

Players that produce a 4,500/40 season have a good chance of winning MVP, as six of the 13 seasons resulted in taking home the trophy. While Burrow obviously did not win the prestigious award last year, he enters 2025 with the third-best odds of winning. However, none of the players that produced a 4,500/40 season won MVP the following season even though many still put up strong numbers. Only one threw for more touchdowns the following season (Tom Brady in 2021), and none that had 4,900 yards in one season matched the output the following campaign.

Is Burrow capable of surpassing his 2024 output? Absolutely. However, he will have to buck recent trends in order to do so.