With the NFL Trade Deadline less than a month away, the hot topic surrounding the Miami Dolphins is whether they will be buyers or sellers.
Of course, a lot will depend on whether Miami is able to win a few games against the Colts, Cardinals, and Bills between now and then. But should Miami only win one of those games or none, their odds of making the playoffs will be slim.
You have to face the harsh reality that the season is lost, and it may be time to start thinking of the future. Jevon Holland, one of the best players on the Dolphins’ roster, is in the final year of his contract. Should Chris Grier look to move him now and get compensation in return for him?
Holland has been eligible for a contract extension for a while now. Still, Miami has prioritized players like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Ramsey, and Tua Tagovailoa ahead of him, getting them new deals—or, in the case of Hill, a reworked deal with a boatload of new money.
There is no question that Jevon Holland is a superstar and one of the best safeties in the NFL, and he has played very well in the defense Anthony Weaver has installed in Miami.
However, we also know how Chris Grier operates since he has been the general manager since 2016; he only gives out big-money contract extensions to players who play premium positions.
Those positions are quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, edge rusher, and cornerback. Holland does not play a premium position.
Robert Hunt, Christian Wilkins, and many other elite players who were up for extensions never got them in Miami under Grier. The list of non-premium position players who leave Miami and get paid elsewhere is very long.
Will Holland follow suit?
Last offseason, Antoine Winfield signed a four-year contract for $84.1 million, with $45 million guaranteed. Holland and his team of agents will demand more money from that, and he will get it from someone once he is on the open market.
Miami can use the franchise tag, but they are not in a very good salary cap position to do so.
Miami will enter the 2025 offseason with the third-worst salary cap situation in the NFL, with only $4.2 million available, according to OvertheCap.com.
Last offseason, the franchise tag number for Safties was $17.1 million; of course, it will go up some in 2025.
This means Miami would have to clear $13 million of cap space just to put the tag on Holland. And that would leave them with no salary cap space to make any moves in free agency. So, using the franchise tag isn’t a realistic option for the Dolphins’ organization.
Here is the reason why trading Holland now before November 5th (assuming Miami continues to lose games and is not a team trending towards making the playoffs or doing any real damage in the playoffs) makes the most sense.
If you let him walk as a free agent and he signs with another team, yes you will get a compensatory pick in 2026. The compensatory pick will be at the end of Rd 3 (which is really the start of Rd 4), and in that 2026 offseason, you cannot make any big signings as that would offset getting the compensatory pick for Holland. So it handcuffs you in many ways.
If you trade Holland now to a team that wants him, you could get a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2025. That helps you immediately next offseason, and you don’t have to worry about playing the compensatory pick game while making a signing that will hurt the compensatory pick.
It just makes too much sense.
But what will Chris Grier do?
Obviously, if Miami rolls off three straight wins between now and the trade deadline, they will likely be leading the AFC East and on the way to the playoffs, one would think so. No, you don’t trade Holland.
But does anyone realistically believe Miami will win three straight based on how they have played this year? It’s more realistic to think they would lose three straight.
But what if they go 1-2? You are 3-5, with the toughest part of your schedule still in front of you. You won’t have Jaelan Phillips, and there is no word on when Chubb will return.
Sometimes, you have to step back and look at the big picture and the greater good beyond 2024. And if Grier has no intention of re-signing Holland or using the Franchise Tag on him (something he really hasn’t done with non-premium position players), then trading Holland now makes all the sense in the world.
It will be something to follow over the next three weeks, and Holland’s broken hand complicates this. But assuming the hand injury is only a four-month injury or something he can play through with a cast, that shouldn’t really have much effect on whether Miami decides to move Holland now or hold onto him for the remainder of the season and see what happens in March.
