Will Sam LaPorta repeat as the TE1 in fantasy football this year?

Rookie tight ends tend to not be great fantasy football producers, but when Sam LaPorta landed with the Detroit Lions it was easy to be optimistic he would be an exception to that history.

LaPorta did that, and a lot more, as a rookie last season. He finished as the TE1 in fantasy across scoring formats (standard, 0.5-PPR, full PPR), dethroning the general reign of Travis Kelce as the top tight end in fantasy football.

Whereas he turned out to be a fantastic value in drafts last year, now LaPorta will be the first tight end off the board in fantasy drafts this year. After setting the single-season NFL record for catches by a rookie tight end, and setting every record for a Lions' tight end in a season, he's easy to put on any list of regression candidates this year.

But....

Will Sam LaPorta repeat as TE1 in fantasy football this year?

Jonathon Macri of Pro Football Focus has put LaPorta in the top tier of fantasy tight ends for 2024, joining Kelce in the class above the rest. Macri thinks LaPorta has a strong chance to repeat as the TE1.

"LaPorta had a historic rookie season in 2023, posting 889 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns as the overall PPR TE1 for the year. His 118 targets and 7.6 targets per game were top-five marks for the position as well. LaPorta’s 23 red zone targets were also a top-five mark and resulted in nine of his 10 total touchdowns in the regular season. Expect LaPorta’s high-end usage in the Lions offense to continue into 2024 while gaining another year of NFL experience, making him a strong candidate for a repeat TE1 season."
-Jonathon Macri, Pro Football Focus

So will LaPorta repeat as the TE1 in fantasy this year?

Looking at his game log from last year, we see some ups and downs for LaPorta. From a fantasy perspective, in 0.5-point PPR, he had seven weeks with a finish outside the top-12 tight ends (five at TE16 or worse). He had nine (or 10, if you count Week 18) weeks with a top-10 finish. He had a two-touchdown game (Week 5) and a three-touchdown game (Week 15), which helped to skew his touchdown total.

That being said, as Macri suggested, a year of experience should really help LaPorta and he has alluded to that himself. His role in the Lions' offense is not going to diminish, and if anything he might be more consistent this year.

So let's boil it down to a percentage chance LaPorta repeats as the TE1 in fantasy this year.

Right now, I'll go with a 55 percent chance it happens.