With Abdul Carter being the betting favorite at two in the draft, Jack Duffin looks at what Andrew Berry has done in the past and why Carter doesn't fit.
When you look at the betting odds for who the Cleveland Browns will select at number two of the draft Abdul Carter is the clear favorite, here is where they currently stand:
Abdul Carter -210
Travis Hunter +160
Shedeur Sanders +700
Cam Ward +1500
Jaxson Dart +3300
Everyone else beyond this is currently +10,000 or more, so it is a very small group that are in the hunt. I think it would be fair to say there are only four legitimate options between Carter, Hunter, Sanders and a trade down. The reason Ward isn't included in my list is because he is currently the -1200 odds on favorite to go number one. Considering the Titans have been once linked to Wentz and no one else, reports are they want three first round picks to trade down, it appears to be a lock to select their quarterback at the top of the draft.
When it comes to edge rushers there is only one key stat I look at for if the player is going to make a difference and this is pressure, effectively how often per pass rushing snap do they impact the quarterback. In 2024 Carter was fantastic, with 19.4% of his pass rushes resulting in pressure, it would be elite production in the NFL.
You are always going to get more pressure in college, compared to the NFL, but here are the pass rushing numbers compared to the current Cleveland Browns edge rushers. Looking at all edges that played 61 or more pass rushing snaps as this was the amount Alex Wright had, there are 148 in total:
2nd, Myles Garrett - 17.4%
35th, Isaiah McGuire - 12.5%
97th, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - 8.7%
105th, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka - 8.2%
137th, Alex Wright - 4.9%
You are gambling on a one year sample size though as Carter's 2024 season was his first year as a full time edge rusher. Across the 2022 & 2023 season you are looking at 197 pass rush snaps in total.
Andrew Berry's Previous Edge Rushers
At the NFL Combine, heights are measured and reported using a four-digit system (feet, inches, and eighths of an inch), for example, 6'1 3/8" is represented as 6013. It is much easier to get how the NFL measures weight as they use a simple metric of pounds.
If we look at all of the edge rushers that Andrew Berry has invested notable resources in, we can see a clear trend of larger players:
Okoronkwo - 6015, 253
Clowney - 6052, 266
McGuire - 6043, 268
Wright - 6051, 271
Garrett - 6044, 272
Clayborn - 6025, 281
Smith - 6044, 274
For comparison Abdul Carter is 6030, 250.
The only player he comes close to is Okoronkwo, but he was clearly seen as a specialist pass rusher than a starting edge for the Cleveland Browns. If you look at what he did for the Browns in 2023 he averaged 32 pass rushes a game he played in. Across a season this is 51.2% of snaps, when compared to Myles Garrett 76.5% you are looking at the difference of a role player compared to a full time starter with the second overall pick.
This height and size certainly isn't a limit for players, we only have to look at divisional rivals in the Steelers to see TJ Watt's combine measurements of 6044, 252. You can also add Parson's too with 6031, 246. There is a great route to being a starting edge and defensive player of the year calibre player but it would certainly be a change of direction for Andrew Berry's starting edges.
Positional Value
For me there are only five key positions in the NFL, they are quarterback, wide receiver, left tackle, edge rusher and cornerback. The reason these five positions are listed and not defensive tackle is because you don't ever tend to find quality answers at these positions in free agency. Plus as the same time they play 80% or more of snaps normally, whereas many defensive tackles only get to around 60% of snaps in a four man front.
They are also all key positions when it comes to the passing game in the NFL. If the Browns loved a quarterback in Sanders or someone else then they take him at two and we don't need to go any further in this discussion. I would say love a quarterback is any player they believe has over a 50% chance of being a top 16 quarterback through the second to fifth year of his rookie deal.
The NFL has a wide ranging debate in 2021, between Ja'Marr Chase and Penei Sewell. Many people in analytics have looked at what is the second most important position behind quarterback and everything seems to point towards the wide receiver as it does so much to elevate the quarterback. While the Browns don't have an answer there yet, they are better getting everything ready to excel than trying to rebuild the entire offense next year while also chasing a rookie quarterback, unless a later pick in 2025 hits.
If you think Carter is a much better player than Hunter then you select him, but if it is close then it should be an easy decision to pick a wide receiver.
Bruce Feldman's Freaks List
Bruce Feldman produces an annual freaks list of college players entering the draft who excel physically, while it is a very useful resource, it shouldn't be something that is taken as gospel for instantly transferring into NFL production.
He is the National College Football Insider for The Athletic. One of the sport's leading voices, he also is a sideline reporter for FOX College Football. Bruce has covered college football nationally for more than 20 years and is the author of numerous books on the topic, including "Swing Your Sword: Leading The Charge in Football and Life" with Mike Leach and most recently "The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks."
Here is a look at the top five defensive line prospects from the 2023 draft, it hasn't translated into NFL success.
#1 freak, top DL - Mazi Smith
#3 freak, top edge rusher - Myles Murphy
#4 freak, second edge - DJ Johnson
#5 freak, third edge - Will McDonald
#7 freak, fourth edge - Julius Welschof
Abdul Carter didn't publicly test in this draft cycle so far, while teams can get lots of data from in game tracking it is always useful to have more information to make a full decision.
Need
You should never draft for need, let me set this as a position statement before I write the following section but if we look at where each position room currently stands if they are between both Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter.
Here is a look at the current wide receiver room:
Jerry Jeudy
Cedric Tillman
Jamari Thrash
David Bell
Michael Woods
DeAndre Carter
Here is a look at the current edge room:
Myles Garrett
Isaiah McGuire
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
Alex Wright
They need to add to both position rooms for me to be happy personally. If one is coming through the draft then there is likely to be an answer in free agency for the other one:
Wide receiver, the free agent options by snap counts in 2024: Elijah Moore, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd, Amari Cooper and Robert Woods.
Edge defender, the free agent options by snap counts in 2024: Emmanuel Ogbah, Matt Judon, Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Jihad Ward.
If I had a choice of which role I would fill in free agency as a one year bride then it is easier to sign Smith and hope that McGuire continues his development, while taking the upside swing with Hunter.
There is significant benefit before we get into what Hunter could potentially offer the team defensively.
Conclusion
With this article I am not nailing my colors to the mast that they should pick Travis Hunter and ignore Abdul Carter in the draft, personally I would be exploring the trade market and hoping someone will give up a 2026 first round pick to allow the Cleveland Browns to gain more assets to set them up to find their quarterback.
There is a good chance they pass on quarterback at two in the draft, this likely doesn't stop them selecting someone later in the first round or on day two, at the same time it is worth collecting more assets to set themselves up for next year as they can't wait to answer the position until 2027, regardless of Jimmy’s comments.
No one in the NFL has found an answer to the draft despite being a billion dollar industry, this in itself is shocking as you would assume efficiency would kick in. My first rule of draft coverage is to take anyone who talks about player evaluations in absolutes with a pinch of salt. Josh Allen should have had a very low chance of success with the Bills due to his poor accuracy, he went about rebuilding his play and this led to a turnaround. At the same time it is important not to chase the exceptions in the draft, look at what has the biggest chance of success and focus on maximising that.
