When you scout an NFL prospect, one of the most important considerations is that player’s “ceiling” and “floor.” What that entails is a player’s ability in a competent offense or defense sans any injuries that might derail their capabilities. In simpler terms it’s what you expect his best possible and worst possible NFL career outcomes might be. Many things factor into this determination, including athletic ability, intelligence, character, competitiveness, desire and work ethic. There are other areas to look at, but those traits are a solid foundation in evaluating a prospect’s ceiling and floor.
Garrett Wilson had a very high ceiling coming out of Ohio State. I had Wilson rated just behind Sauce Gardner, and just ahead of Trent McDuffie.
Wilson has had two exceptional NFL seasons, with over 1,000 yards receiving in each year. This was accomplished while a variety of quarterbacks were at the helm of the New York Jets offense. None of those quarterbacks were named Aaron Rodgers, sans four snaps in 2023. None of those quarterbacks had the ability of an average NFL signal caller.
Add to that Wilson played on a team with a horrific offensive line, which gave those quarterbacks little protection. When you have a bottom five offensive line you have scant ability to run the ball on a consistent basis. A proficient running attack forces defenses to drop a safety down into the box to aid in run defense.
If you can’t run the ball efficiently you allow the defense to sit back in a two deep safety look. That severely hinders a team’s ability to make splash plays in the passing game. It is very difficult to continually move the offense in 10 or 12 play drives in the NFL. A sack, penalties or offensive miscues invariably occur, which will stall drives. Big plays are needed for an offense to be successful, and that quickly gives you more opportunities to score more points. 10 or 12 play drives eat up time, which keeps the opposing team’s offense off the field but also gives your offense less time to score.
The Jets ranked dead last in first downs per play in 2023, which shows the lack of explosiveness in the Jets offense. If it takes you more plays on average to get a first down than every other NFL team, your offense is struggling.
Wilson was drafted out of Ohio State as a speedy wideout who had great players around him while often playing against overmatched opponents. This often leads to a player who is happy to settle for the status quo, but Wilson was different. He along with fellow receiver Chris Olave strived for greatness that continued as they moved on to the NFL.
Wilson was not given enough credit for his first two seasons in the NFL. He is an explosive receiver who had to readjust his game to fit into the Jets anemic offense. He was a big play receiver at Ohio State who averaged 15.8 yards a catch with 18 touchdowns in his final two years. Wilson had to hone his game to be productive in a feeble Jets offense. He had 83 receptions as a rookie, but he averaged only 13.3 yards a catch with a mere four touchdowns. He increased his catch total in 2023 with 95 receptions, but he averaged a scant 11.0 yards a catch with only three TDs in 2023.
Will this be the season we finally see the best of Garrett Wilson?
I truly believe so. Let’s look at the reasons for this.
Aaron Rodgers is back
The importance of having Aaron Rodgers back cannot be understated. The Jets have never had a quarterback like Rodgers. I know they had Joe Namath. I watched every game he played. Namath was great. Yet the game is much different now, with a variety of defenses that were nonexistent in the 1960’s and 1970’s. Don’t get me wrong. I love Joe Namath. I have an autographed jersey adorned with signed pictures of Joe hanging in the entryway into my home. So yeah, I really like Joe.
Rodgers makes a huge difference, as he has the ability to decipher a defense as he breaks the huddle while walking to the line. He can make quick adjustments with a hand motion that puts his receiver in the best position to make a play. He has seen it all, so he can make the right call when he changes the play.
Rodgers is incredibly precise with his throws. His accuracy is key to making splash plays, as he can hit a receiver in stride, which allows him to make the most out of each play. He also scares the heck out of a defense. Rodgers is still mobile enough to make plays on the move; not just any play but big, game changing plays. You know every team the Jets face will be looking to stop Rodgers at all costs, which should help Breece Hall immensely.
If the running game gets going, then the defense will have to adjust, which will give Wilson more room in the secondary to make a big play. An opposing defense can lock onto one guy, but when you have a quality quarterback-running back-wide receiver trio it makes your offense very difficult to stop. The opposing defense can’t stop everything, so the more weapons you have that are working the better for the offense.
The best example of how Aaron Rodgers makes Wilson better can be understood when you learn that “Wilson said he feels like a kid again with Rodgers’ return.”
Better offensive line play
The offensive line should be much improved in 2024, as long as they can stay healthy. The addition of Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses (if they stay healthy) will be a godsend to the Jets in 2024. A healthy Alijah Vera-Tucker, along with the addition of John Simpson and the improvement of Joe Tippmann, should be huge upgrades over what we witnessed in 2023. I look for the Jets to pick up a center/guard type player in reserve following final cuts to solidify the interior line reserves.
The maturity of Garrett Wilson
I am not implying that Wilson was immature in any way the last two years, but he was quite young entering the NFL. Wilson is still only 24 years old, so two years of natural maturation accompanied by two NFL seasons under his belt make him a better NFL talent than he was when he came into the league. He also has had little in the way of serious injuries, so 2024 should be his best year to date.
The addition of other weapons
The Jets signed Mike Williams in free agency to play opposite Wilson in 2024. Williams is a 7 year veteran who has averaged 15.6 yards a catch during his career. He has 31 career touchdowns with over 300 receptions as a deep threat that defenses must honor. A field stretcher is what Wilson needs so he can work in that intermediate area behind the linebackers but in front of dropping safeties. Safeties don’t need to drop if there is no deep threat, so the Williams addition, if healthy, should in theory work out well for Wilson.
The Jets also drafted receiver Malachi Corley and running back Braelon Allen to help the offense. Corley should work the slot, which will make a safety or linebacker work in coverage which gives Wilson more room to operate. Allen looks like a steal as he is a strong runner who is also very capable out of the backfield. He is a great compliment to Breece Hall so the offense can work on all cylinders when Breece takes a breather. Add to that the young receivers Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee, and Irvin Charles, who have matured with experience. They may not all make the team, but those who are not picked up by other teams will surely find their way on the practice squad.
The more viable weapons the Jets have only helps to decreases the attention paid to Wilson since you can’t leave any of these players to roam free.
The Addition of Shawn Jefferson as Wide Receiver coach
I cannot tell you how happy I was that the Jets brought back Shawn Jefferson as the Wide Receiver coach. Why they let him go in the first place boggles my mind. Jefferson is an energetic, intelligent teacher who will make Wilson a much better receiver. Jefferson is a detail oriented craftsman who demands WRs run precise routes. He teaches players how to explode out of breaks, which gives them separation from man coverage. If you run the route like Jefferson asks of you, that receiver will be open every time no matter who is in coverage; he is that good.
This is from the Jets website on Shawn Jefferson
Jefferson returns to the Jets after one season with Carolina (2023) and two seasons with Arizona (2021-22). With the Panthers in 2023, Jefferson coached a group led by veteran Adam Thielen, who recorded his third 1,000+ receiving yard season (first since 2018), and his second 100+ reception season. With the Cardinals in 2021, four players recorded 40+ receptions, 500+ receiving yards and three+ touchdowns, followed by five players recording 20+ receptions and multiple touchdowns in 2022.
In his first stint with the Jets (2019-20), Jefferson oversaw a group led by Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder, as the duo was one of just seven League-wide to each post 50+ receptions, 700+ yards and five+ touchdowns during the 2019 season. Anderson averaged 15.0 yards per catch, one of just 20 receivers in the NFL to do so, while Crowder posted a new single season best in reception (78), leading the team with six touchdown receptions. Additionally, Vyncint Smith, added by the Jets from the HST practice squad in-season, became one of just nine wide receivers in the League with at least three receptions of 20+ yards and at least 117 runs of 10+ yards. The following season (2020), Crowder fell one yard short of recording consecutive seasons with 50+ receptions, 700+ yards, and five+ touchdowns, while the offense saw four players record 30+ receptions, 250+ yards, and three+ touchdowns.
During his time in Detroit, he helped wide receiver Calvin Johnson set an NFL single-season record with 1,964 yards receiving (2012). Johnson was selected for the Pro Bowl three times and led the NFL in receiving yardage twice, finishing with season averages of 88 receptions for 1,416 yards (16.1 average) and 10 touchdowns in five years with Jefferson as his position coach.
Many might not realize that Jefferson was quite a good receiver in his own right. He played for 13 seasons with over 7,000 receiving yards, playing in 195 games with 470 receptions.
Watch him in action as he coaches
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX1f9Ub6d7c
Shawn Jefferson said Garrett Wilson’s competitiveness amazes him, which is high praise indeed.
If Wilson and Rodgers stay healthy all season what will the stat line be for Wilson?
