After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016 last year, the New York Yankees are back in contention. The team rebounded to a 94-68 record, a 12-game improvement over 2023, earning the AL's best record, and they'll now face either the Kansas City Royals or Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS.
New York went through peaks and valleys this season, starting how before going through a mid-season slump when superstars Aaron Judge and Juan Soto were the only consistent hitters, as Giancarlo Stanton was sidelined. Manager Aaron Boone acknowledged that the road wasn't easy, via MLB.com's Bryan Hoch.
“It's crazy,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “You go through 162 games; I feel like we've been through a ton as a team this year. To end up with the best record in the American League, I think it's something to be proud of, and these guys should be proud of. They've answered every challenge this year.”
“It hasn't always been easy, but [we're] proud of the fact that we've put ourselves in this position to take our shot. We're excited about that.”
Judge vowed that this is a new Yankees era.
“We missed it last year, which definitely disappointed everybody in this room,” Judge said. “When you wear these pinstripes and play in this stadium, you're expected to win. We came up short [in 2023]. We want to make a statement that it isn't going to happen again.”
While New York will be favored against whoever it faces in the ALDS and CS, not all matchups are equal. Which teams should the Yankees hope to face on paper?
ALDS: Kansas City Royals
The Royals upset the Orioles 1-0 in the first game of the best-of-three Wild Card series, which is a good sign for New York. The Yankees were 5-8 against Baltimore in the regular season, while they were 5-2 against Kansas City. The Orioles won four of their five series against New York, largely because they held the club to three runs or less in six games. Baltimore's playoff rotation of Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer could make life hard on the Yankees' hitters.
The Orioles were also better than the Royals offensively against the Yankees, recording a .732 OPS against Kansas City's .651 mark, via StatMuse. What's more, Baltimore struggled at the end of the season but still won two out of three games in Yankee Stadium at the end of September.
Granted, it's hard to compare a division rival to a non-divisional opponent, as divisional rivals know each other the best. However, the Orioles have a deeper roster on both sides of the ball, and they've had New York's number this season.
The Royals' roster is nothing to sneeze at, but they have no upper-echelon offensive threats outside of AL batting champion Bobby Witt Jr. and catcher Salvador Perez. They're carried more by their pitching, as Cole Ragans (3.14 ERA), Seth Lugo (3.00 ERA), and Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA) are all dependable arms. Ragans blanked Baltimore over six innings on Tuesday, while relievers Sam Long (3.16 ERA), Kris Bubic (2.67 ERA), and Lucas Erceg (3.36 ERA) shut the door.
While Kansas City's pitching staff won't be easy to score on, the Yankees can take advantage of its top-heavy lineup. It's easier to gamble on Judge, Soto, and Stanton than Witt, Perez, and a partially injured Vinnie Pasquantino.
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ALCS: Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland finished 1.5 games behind New York as the AL's second seed. The Guardians are awaiting the winner of the Detroit Tigers-Houston Astros Wild Card series.
The Tigers upset the Astros 3-1 in Game 1 on Tuesday, so the upcoming point will be moot if they win Game 2 on Wednesday. However, Houston has tortured New York in the playoffs, ousting it in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022. While the teams' rosters have changed, part of their cores are the same, with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman on the Astros, and Judge and Stanton on the Yankees.
Similar to the Royals, if Detroit goes on a run to the ALCS, it'll be because of its pitching. The Tigers' batting average leader in the regular season was outfielder Riley Greene, who hit a modest .262. However, its reliable pitching staff showed why it was playing in October, with Tarik Skubal (2.39 ERA), Will Vest (2.39 ERA), Tyler Holton (2.19 ERA), and Beau Brieske (3.59 ERA) all holding Houston off the board.
Assuming the favored team makes the ALCS, though, the modern-day Guardians don't have a good playoff record against New York. The Yankees eliminated them in 2017, 2020, and 2022, and they'll once again have home-field advantage. While historical precedent doesn't mean everything, it affects teams more than they'd like to admit. Players are only human, and it's easier to be confident against an opponent they usually beat instead of one they don't.
