The Juan Soto sweepstakes is the biggest story of this winter. Soto is expected to sign his deal in the next two weeks with the top five teams being listed as the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
While any of these teams could still sign the superstar, the two New York teams remain favored. However, the value of Soto's deal is a bit harder to predict because it's rumored to be monumentally large.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post thinks Soto will land a deal richer than the floor $600 million rumored contract, but not quite the dream $700 million contract. Heyman predicts Soto to land a 14-year, $630 million contract this winter.
"With almost all big-market teams involved, including the Mets and incumbent Yankees, he will score the most valuable contract ever when considering Shohei Ohtani's $700M deal is valued at $437.4M (union valuation) due to the $680M in deferrals," Heyman wrote. "At least the Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and surprising (Tampa Bay) Rays are also in the biggest derby. $630M, 14 years."
Heyman could be right on the money with this prediction, but there are so many factors in Soto's deal. Will there be opt-outs? Will it be front-loaded? Will multiple teams offer $630 million, ultimately driving the price even higher?
At the end of the day, nobody is going to truly know the details of Soto's deal until it emerges. To be safe, I would expect a deal well over the $600 million mark for 13-15 years.
