In the end, the notion of the Yankees letting ace pitcher Gerrit Cole walk this offseason as a free agent is at least a longshot, if not a flat-out near impossibility. But it is expected that Cole will opt out of the remaining four years and $144 million on his contract once this season is up, at least putting the notion of him hitting the market on the table.
The Yankees can prevent that, though, through a trigger in Cole’s contract that was built into the nine-year, $324 million deal he signed with the team in 2019. The Yankees would have to add another year to the end of the contract for $36 million—in 2029, when Cole will be 38 years old—to keep Cole off the free-agent market.
For a lot of teams that might not be an easy decision. But for the Yankees, even with Juan Soto expected to receive the richest contract in history for a position player, the real risk would be in not keeping Cole.
As Mike Ginnitti of Spotrac noted on “The Spotrac Podcast” recently, Brian Cashman and the Yankees brass would have little choice but to keep Cole aboard.
“Is there a world where the Yankees don’t want to add an age 38 year to Gerrit Cole? Sure,” Ginnitti said. “I don’t think anyone wants to guarantee a pitcher $36 million at age 38. But … you don’t give up on an ace for $36 million in the city of New York. This front office will get crucified if you do something like that.”
Gerrit Cole Injury Could Raise Concerns
Of course, it is not just concern over Cole’s age and salary that would weigh into the decision by the Yankees to dole out another $36 million. There is also his recent injury history to consider, as Cole missed more than three months to start the year with elbow inflammation.
The elbow did not require surgery, but considering the fact that Cole is a workhorse who was gone 200-plus innings six times in his career, and led the league in innings in 2023, it is reasonable to worry about how healthy his arm will be going forward.
Still, on his career, Cole has a sterling record: 151-78, with an ERA of 3.18. He was an All-Star for three straight seasons before this year’s injury, and, incredibly, has a WHIP of 1.037 and a strikeouts-per-9-ininngs rate of 11.0 in his five seasons with the Yankees.
Since returning from the elbow injury, though, Cole has been good-not-great. His WHIP is up notably, at 1.290, and his strikeout rate is 10.2. Cole will be the ace for the Yankees in the playoffs, though, and much of the success or failure of this season for him will rest on how he pitches in those situations.
Yankees Would Be Paying Market Value
Unless the playoffs go especially bad, it would be hard to imagine the Yankees letting Cole walk or even test the market.
One of the nifty coincidences about the way his contract sets up from here is that, if Cole did hit free agency, Spotrac’s model would have him valued at five years and $180 million. That’s exactly what the remainder of his contract would be if the Yankees block his opt out for $36 million in 2029.
“So, let’s assume that is exactly what is going to happen—Gerrit Cole is going to opt out, the Yankees are going to block him from doing it. He will be left with five years and $180 million, which is exactly what our math says he is worth,” Ginnitti said.
“This is just one of those cases where, dollar-for-dollar Gerrit Cole and the Yankees appear to be right at market value.”
