The 49ers’ latest come from ahead defeat has some calling for Kyle Shanahan’s head. He has driven the team bus into a ditch and their playoff chances are now at 27% according to ESPN’s formulas. Let’s break it down.
1. Will Shanahan be fired?
No, I don’t think so. This organization values money over rings. Shanahan is the golden goose that delivers highly profitable home playoff games. Only when the Yorks believe that may stop will anything change.
Two straight years of no home playoff games, then he could be fired. Now? Doubtful. Two recent Super Bowl appearances, four NFC Championship games, for franchise perception and inertia alone he won’t be let go.
Should he be fired in my view yes, particularly with a rare talent available in Detroit Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson. But ownership doesn’t think in those terms.
“If they let Shanahan go then who?!!?” The battle cry of his defenders who invariably cast the Expecto Tomsula spell along with it. Guys, you’re crying wolf, it’s no longer a flex. It’s somewhat ironic that Shanahan has elevated the franchise to the point where the top candidates will now take an interview with them. Asking who is a fair question, mentioning Tomsula and Chip Kelly gets eye rolls and tanks your credibility.
So who? Johnson this season, but the better time to ask will be next season.
2. If the Niners move on from Shanahan what can they get for him in trade?
Quite possibly nothing. The finance-first Niners ownership will not want to pay part of Shanahan’s salary after a trade. So the compensation agreement is the new team paying Shanahan’s full salary. It's not what you want to hear, but that's plausible.
If the Niners can move on from Shanahan and get a 2nd or 3rd back they’ll be fortunate. Kyle would be in demand, but a team paying his full salary and giving a first-round pick back is too rosy.
3. So how did this season fall away, what went wrong?
It began with the Super Bowl defeat that can partially be put on Shanahan. Getting the ring was the glue that held the team together and gave players purpose and urgency.
After the defeat, a driven team became a group of independent contractors, as the urgency and collective belief started to fade. The odometer impact of playing so many playoff games over the last five years led to more severe injuries. Steps were lost due to the age of an aging team.
Depth took a hit due to the terrible drafts in 2022 and 2023. The outstanding 2024 class is making a big impact, but mainly as starters so the poor depth remains. That's a sign of how empty the cupboards were entering the year. In addition, free agent investments haven’t paid off.
This year’s team is older, less dominant, and lacks quality depth, cutting down its margin for error. In past years when the Niners made mistakes, they had the talent and depth to recover, in 2024 they no longer can.
Shanahan’s mistakes have been costly, led by his 2023 mindset on touches. Heavy reliance on a lesser Christian McCaffrey, too many touches for a diminished Deebo Samuel, too few carries for Jordan Mason. It’s as if 2024 doesn’t exist.
These stats from Jake Hutchinson are telling. Samuel has -40 rushing yards over expected, ranking 268th out of 280 leaguewide. McCaffrey is at -27 and ranks 257th. They get the snaps and carries. Yet Isaac Guerendo is +76 and 17th, and Jordan Mason is +196 and 4th. The talent that can help win games is sitting on the bench.
Another factor, nine penalties against Seattle. The team lacks discipline and that goes back to Shanahan. His narcissism refuses to allow him to accept responsibility and hold himself accountable. His team picks up on that.
They also pick up on a team cultural trait to wish things into being. This leads to Samuel saying they’ve had the best team for years, avoiding the reality of losing in the Super Bowl twice. Accountability is vacant as wishing paints over reality. That’s not the mindset needed to contend.
Shanahan doubled down on paying vets and that has led to an imbalanced team that’s too old and hurt – not enough youth, not enough hunger, and even with that, the young talent sits.
4. So what can be done?
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Niners. They have great talent, they have successful coaches, but they must realize their full potential consistently, and do it this week in Green Bay, or the season is essentially over.
The obvious change is to run Mason more. Far more. On defense, the return of Charvarius Ward should lead to Nick Sorensen being more willing to blitz. He won’t have a choice if Nick Bosa can’t play.
For the team after the season, I’d expect Sorensen, Brandon Staley, and Brian Schneider to be let go. Maybe John Lynch is bumped up to Team President to make room for a GM with personnel control above Shanahan, but that strikes me as wishing things into being.
