The San Francisco 49ers had a tough 2024 season, finishing the year with a 6-11 record and in fourth place in the NFC West for the first time since 2020 when the trio of Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard quarterbacked the team to a 6-10 record.
While San Francisco was around the middle of the league in points scored (22.9 per game - 14th), rushing yards (127.2 per game - 11th) and rushing yards allowed (124.6 per game- 18th), and near the top of the league in passing yards (249.1 per game - 3rd) and passing yards allowed (192.8 per game - 4th), they were down at the bottom in points allowed (25.6 per game - 29th).
The 49ers had multiple key players on the defensive side of the ball miss significant time last season. The absences of safety Talanoa Hufanga (seven games played), defensive lineman Javon Hargrave (four games played) and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (two games played) could explain some of the team's defensive shortcomings.
Running back Christian McCaffrey (four games played), wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (seven games played) and offensive tackle Trent Williams (10 games played) were inactive for a good chunk of the year as well. Had that trio been healthier in 2024, the offense may have offset the poor play on the other side of the ball.
Now, as the 49ers prepare for 2025, ESPN's Aaron Schatz identified San Francisco as the team that's most likely to go from worst to first in their division.
"The 49ers have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons: schedule, health and they weren't really that bad last season," Schatz wrote. "San Francisco finished the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings at FTN didn't have the 49ers quite that high, but they were still 14th despite a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easily the best ever by an 11-loss team, going all the way back to 1978...
"The 49ers have the easiest projected schedule in the league, which is why FPI favors them to win the NFC West over the Rams, who are rated higher overall. The NFC South and AFC South make for an easy schedule outside of their division games, while the 49ers also get to play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams have a much harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens and Lions."
The other teams in the division, obviously, can stop the 49ers from accomplishing this goal. The Los Angeles Rams, who finished in first last season, will likely be San Francisco's biggest challenge as long as Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are together. The Seattle Seahawks, who came in second, are true wild cards this season after swapping out Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp. The third-place Arizona Cardinals should also be ascending with another year of development for younger players (wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr., defensive end Darius Robinson, cornerback Max Melton, etc.) and first-time head coach Jonathan Gannon.
Still, if the 49ers are healthy, they should contend for the top spot.
