It was Tampa Bay Lightning day over at the league’s website the other day. As they have been doing for each team in the league they devoted the day to topics such as:
NHL Edge Stats for the Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning Fantasy Projections
Top Prospects for the Tampa Bay Lightning
An Inside Look at the Tampa Bay Lightning
The final post was their popular “3 Questions Facing the Tampa Bay Lightning“.
As we roll through the final week of August, we figured it would be a good thought exercise to answer the questions ourselves. Feel free to chip in with your thoughts in comments. Consider this the first of a few season preview posts that will be popping up over the next month or so. Hockey is almost here, folks!
Question #1
Are the Lightning still a Stanley Cup Contender?
The answer is yes. Are they a Stanley Cup favorite? That answer is no. All a team needs to win the Stanley Cup is a seat at the table. In this case, the table is the playoffs, and despite all of the subtractions over the past few seasons, the Bolts are still a playoff team. They might be a borderline playoff team, but the odds are that they will find a way in to the postseason (Hard Rock Bet has them at -230 to make the playoffs for you gambling aficionados).
As for being a favorite, let’s not kid ourselves. It’s going to be a gauntlet to make it to the Eastern Conference Final this year. The Atlantic Division is going to be rough this year. Florida, Toronto, and Boston didn’t suffer any backbreaking losses (although the Bruins new goaltending duo might be a step down). Buffalo is knocking on the playoff door for the fourth season in a row. Ottawa, Detroit, and Montreal might not be ready for prime time just yet, but they aren’t going to be rollovers either. Getting to the 95+ point barrier that seems to be the cutoff for the postseason is going to be tough for the Bolts.
Still, they have the offensive firepower to outscore some of the other problems they may face. Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming back with a full summer of no back rehab, and Nikita Kucherov may be playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. Jake Guentzel is bringing a history of offensive production with him and swapping Mikhail Sergachev for Ryan McDonagh on the second pair should, in theory, boost the defense.
Question #2
Will they be better defensively?
Well, they better darn well be. This is the million dollar question for the Lightning this season (with, Can they improve their 5v5 scoring as the $500,000 question). They need to allow fewer goals this season. That’s it, that’s the headline.
As the chart shows, it’s been a steady rise in goals against, both overall and at 5v5 since the 2020-21 season (aka The Second Cup Year). More so than offense, it has been the defense that has been affected the most by the attrition of talent that success brings. As much as he’s tried, Julien BriseBois hasn’t seemed to be able to staunch the flow of pucks going into the Lightning’s net.
A pivot to a more forechecking-focused team last season didn’t seem to pay off, especially since that style of play isn’t exactly what their top forwards like to do. Outside of the Guentzel-for-Stamkos swap, there wasn’t much of a change in the forward ranks. Tyler Motte is out and Zemgus Girgensons is in. All-offense Anthony Duclair has also departed with an unknown commodity in Cam Atkinson coming in.
Defensively, the upgrades come from Ryan McDonagh over Mikhail Sergachev and J.J. Moser over the rotating cast of players they had on the third pairing last season. Moser could help offset the loss of some of the offense that Sergachev generated while Mr. BriseBois and Coach Cooper are hoping that reuniting McDonagh and Erik Cernak gives them the lockdown pairing they’ve been missing since the Mack Truck was traded to Nashville.
Shorthanded, the Lightning should still be one of the top teams in the league. They have plenty of forwards they can rotate through and their main defensive pairings are still around with McDonagh theoretically giving them an upgrade.
A full season of Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes shouldn’t hurt either. Jonas Johansson did yeoman’s work after he was thrust into the starting role to begin the season, but he’s no Vasy. Even Vasy was no Vasy for parts of last season, but seemed to be finding his old groove as things went along. Now, with a full off-season behind him (with hopefully no gym-related injuries) he should reclaim his spot among the elite in the league. The Bolts don’t need him to be the best, but if he puts in a top-10 season, they should see a big decrease in their goals allowed number.
If they can get back under 3.00 GA/60 then they should have the offense to remain competitive in the Eastern Conference. Of the 12 teams that posted a goals against below 3.00 last season, only the Buffalo Sabres failed to make the playoffs. One might be the loneliest number, but three seems to be the magic one for success in the NHL.
Question #3
What will change about the power play?
The goods news is that three of the four most important players on the league’s best power play are still on the team. Victor Hedman is still there to swing the puck from one side to the other. Nikita Kucherov is still on the half-boards making the magic happen and Brayden Point is still in the slot firing dangerous shots at will.
While they flirted around with Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul down low, the big hole in the top unit will be Steven Stamkos’ one-time from the left circle. The threat of that shot always spread defenses out which gave Point and Hedman space to operate in the middle while giving Kucherov passing options. Things will change without Stamkos hammering the puck from his office.
Guentzel is the most likely replacement for him on the top unit, but he’s not a one-timer kind of guy. His role is more along the lines of Paul’s or Cirelli’s, down low deflecting pucks or jamming home rebounds. The Bolts really don’t have a one-timer solution anywhere near Stamkos’ ability, so whoever takes that spot will likely play a little closer to the blue line.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bolts play more of a box-and-one style with two players up by the blue line. Kucherov could fill that role, his wrist shot is deceptive enough that he can score from that distance and he can still set up Point and Guentzel down low.
There will be a lot of tinkering with the power play in training camp and the units could see a lot of shuffling in practice and in the preseason games.
